Dow Jones & Nasdaq 100: Fed, Earnings in Focus as US Futures Dip

Chinese Trade Data Impresses

While concerns about Japan’s debt levels weakened the yen, strong Chinese trade data boosted optimism about the Chinese economy. Chinese exports rose 6.6% year-on-year in December, up from 5.9% in November, while imports increased 5.7% (November: 1.9%).

December’s trade data signaled a strong global demand backdrop, lifting sentiment.

US Producer Prices, Retail Sales, and Earnings in Focus

US futures dipped during the Asian morning session on Wednesday, January 14. The Nasdaq 100 E-mini and the S&P 500 E-mini declined 15 points and 8 points, respectively, while the Dow Jones E-mini fell 102 points.

Later Wednesday, US producer prices and retail sales figures will influence the Fed rate path. Economists forecast retail sales will increase 3% year-on-year in November, down from 3.5% in October. Meanwhile, economists expect producer prices to rise 2.7% YoY in November, mirroring September’s increase.

Softer producer prices and retail sales growth would likely raise bets on an H1 2026 Fed rate cut, boosting demand for US stock futures. Typically, lower borrowing costs improve earnings and equity valuations.

While the economic data will influence sentiment, traders should closely monitor earnings announcements. Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citigroup (C) will release their earnings. Weaker-than-expected earnings would likely overshadow the economic data and weigh on risk appetite.

The current dynamics, including market optimism over AI-linked corporate earnings and bets on an H1 2026 Fed rate cut, affirm a cautiously bullish near-term and bullish medium-term price outlook.

Key Technical Levels for Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500

Despite the latest losses, the Dow Jones E-mini, the Nasdaq 100 E-mini, and the S&P 500 E-mini remained above their 50-day and 200-day EMAs. The EMAs signaled bullish momentum, aligning with positive fundamentals.

Near-term trends will hinge on geopolitical tensions, US economic data, corporate earnings, and Fed chatter. Key levels to monitor include:

Dow Jones

• Resistance: the January 13 record high of 49,901, and then 50,000.
• Support: 49,000 followed by the 50-day EMA (48,227).