Dow Jones & Nasdaq 100: Fed Minutes in Focus for US Futures
The announcement came ahead of January’s Japanese trade data, which showed exports surge 16.8% year-on-year, up from 5.1% in December. However, Japanese exports to the US dropped 5.0% after declining 11.1% in December despite overall exports rising. The trade deal highlighted President Trump’s push for foreign investment into the US, bullish for US stock futures.
FOMC Minutes in Focus
US futures posted modest losses during the Asian session on February 18. The Dow Jones E-mini fell 39 points, while the Nasdaq 100 E-mini and the S&P 500 E-mini dropped 46 points and 8 points, respectively.
Later in Wednesday’s session, the FOMC Meeting Minutes will face scrutiny after last week’s US jobs and CPI reports. Support for rate cuts in the event that inflation cools would boost demand for US index futures, given January’s cooler inflation numbers.
Last week’s stronger-than-expected US jobs report overshadowed softer inflation, tempering bets on a June Fed rate cut. Revived bets on a June cut would support expectations of multiple cuts in 2026. Lower borrowing costs can lift profits and stock valuations, bringing all-time highs into play.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a June Fed cut fell from 75.2% on February 10 to 63.6% on February 17.
Key Technical Levels for Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500
Following Wednesday morning’s losses, the Nasdaq 100 E-mini and the S&P 500 E-mini traded below their 50-day EMAs, while remaining above their 200-day EMAs. The EMA positions indicated a bearish near-term but bullish longer-term outlook. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones E-mini remained above its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, signaling a bullish bias that aligns with positive fundamentals.
Near-term trends will hinge on US economic indicators, central bank chatter, and geopolitical risks. Key levels to monitor include:
Dow Jones
- Resistance: 50,000, the February 10 record high of 50,611, and then 51,000.
- Support: the 50-day EMA (49,027), and then 48,500.