Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P 500 futures near pause as Nvidia earnings threaten to shake Wall Street

U.S. stock futures are treading water this morning, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all showing only marginal gains as traders adopt a wait-and-see approach. The caution stems largely from Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report, which has become one of the most anticipated events of the season.

As the company at the heart of the artificial intelligence boom, Nvidia’s results are expected to set the tone not just for tech stocks but for the broader market.

A strong report could inject fresh momentum into the rally, while even a slight miss could trigger a pullback across indexes, leaving Wall Street on edge until the numbers are revealed.

• Dow Jones futures: +0.03% (nearly flat, cautious optimism)
• S&P 500 futures: +0.04% (slight upward bias)
• Nasdaq-100 futures: +0.05% (marginal tech-led strength)

Why are futures so quiet this morning?

U.S. stock futures opened the midweek session in cautious fashion, barely moving as traders balanced optimism with anxiety. By early morning, Nasdaq-100 futures were up just 0.05%, S&P 500 futures inched higher by 0.04%, and Dow Jones futures ticked up 0.03%.ALSO READ: Nvidia earnings on deck today: Brown Shipley offloads 3,351 NVDA shares worth $18.5M

That kind of subdued trading doesn’t mean investors aren’t paying attention—it means they’re waiting. With one of the market’s most important corporate earnings looming and fresh political tension swirling around the Federal Reserve, traders appear unwilling to make any aggressive bets until they see how the next 48 hours unfold.

How are ETFs reflecting the mood?

Exchange-traded funds tied to the major indexes tell the same story of hesitation. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) closed the prior day at $645.16, rising 0.45%, and added another 0.09% in pre-market trading. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) finished at $454.49, up 0.33%, and gained a modest 0.06% pre-market.

Both funds show the market leaning slightly higher but without conviction. Investors are nibbling on the edges rather than diving in, a signal that confidence is being held back by the uncertainty of the week’s upcoming events.

Why is Nvidia’s earnings report so critical?

The single biggest driver of caution right now is Nvidia’s upcoming second-quarter earnings report, due after tomorrow’s market close. The chipmaker isn’t just another tech stock—it’s the face of the artificial intelligence boom, and its results have the power to sway the entire market.

Traders know that Nvidia’s numbers could shake not just its own stock but also ripple through the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, which are heavily weighted toward technology. Some analysts estimate Nvidia’s report alone could spark a 1% swing in the S&P 500 and a move of 5–6% in Nvidia shares.

In plain terms: if Nvidia delivers another blockbuster quarter, it could breathe fresh life into the AI trade and push indexes to new highs. But if the company disappoints, even slightly, it could trigger a broad pullback, as investors reassess whether tech valuations have run too far too fast.

What political risks are weighing on markets?

On top of corporate earnings risk, Wall Street is grappling with political drama that could spill into monetary policy. President Trump’s recent attempt to remove a Federal Reserve governor has raised fresh questions about the central bank’s independence.

For investors, this kind of tension matters because it creates uncertainty about how monetary policy will be handled. If the Fed is seen as politically influenced, confidence in its ability to set rates independently could erode, leading to turbulence in bond markets and rate-sensitive stocks. With traders already uncertain about the Fed’s path on interest rates, the political backdrop is making the outlook even more cloudy.

Big Gainers Today:

• MongoDB (MDB)
  • Surged over 31%
  • Boosted by strong quarterly revenue growth and improved profitability outlook
  • Seen as a key beneficiary of enterprise software demand
• nCino (NCNO)
  • Jumped nearly 9.6%
  • Driven by better-than-expected subscription growth
  • Financial institutions adopting more cloud banking solutions
• Okta (OKTA)
  • Rose about 5%
  • Gains tied to improving margins and stronger cybersecurity demand
  • Investor confidence growing around its path to profitability
• Cracker Barrel (CBRL)
  • Advanced close to 7%
  • Stronger same-store sales and improved cost management
  • Consumer resilience showing in casual dining segment
• PVH Corp (PVH)
  • Climbed nearly 6.8%
  • Sales growth across Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger brands
  • Guidance raised for full-year, showing strength in global retail

Which stocks are moving despite flat futures?

Even with the spotlight on Nvidia, several names lit up premarket screens:

• MongoDB (MDB) surged nearly 30% after smashing expectations and hiking full-year guidance. The rally highlights how investors still reward growth software names when they deliver execution.
• Okta (OKTA) climbed 5% on strong subscription growth and upbeat forward guidance, signaling continued strength in cybersecurity demand.
• Cracker Barrel (CBRL) jumped 6–7% after announcing a return to its classic logo—an unusual but effective move that resonated with its core customer base.
• Canada Goose (GOOS) soared as much as 14% on reports of takeover interest from Bain Capital and other private equity bidders.
• Kohl’s (KSS) posted a 15% gain following stronger-than-expected quarterly results, suggesting consumer discretionary demand hasn’t fully cracked despite macro headwinds.
• nCino (NCNO) popped 9.6%, Box (BOX) rose nearly 4%, and PVH (PVH) gained 6.8%, all off earnings surprises.

Meanwhile, Nvidia itself ticked up about 0.5% in early trade, a modest move compared to what may come later today.

How are bond yields, oil, and the dollar behaving?

Treasuries offered little drama—10-year yields held steady around 4.27%, reinforcing the wait-and-see mood. In commodities, oil slipped to $63.20 per barrel, extending a recent downtrend driven by oversupply concerns and slowing global demand.

The U.S. dollar strengthened modestly, while gold was subdued, suggesting investors are not aggressively seeking havens yet.

This stability under the surface is deceptive; traders are essentially coiled, waiting for Nvidia to release its report card before shifting allocations.

Should everyday investors be worried?

For individual investors watching the tape, today’s flat futures shouldn’t be read as a warning sign of weakness. Instead, it’s more of a pause button. Markets are essentially holding their breath until Nvidia’s earnings and the Fed situation become clearer.

If Nvidia confirms the AI boom with another record-breaking quarter, it could strengthen the case for staying invested in growth and technology names. On the other hand, a miss or weak guidance could shift money quickly out of the sector, creating buying opportunities for those waiting on the sidelines.

The political drama adds a different kind of risk. If uncertainty grows over the Fed’s independence, it could hurt financial stocks, real estate, and other areas sensitive to interest rate moves. Everyday investors should be mindful of these ripple effects, even if they don’t trade futures directly.

What’s the bigger picture?

Stepping back, today’s futures snapshot reflects a market that has been climbing for months but is now at an inflection point. The AI rally has driven a huge share of gains in 2025, and Nvidia is the poster child of that trade. At the same time, global investors remain sensitive to U.S. political developments, especially when they involve institutions like the Federal Reserve.

This combination creates a unique moment where both corporate results and political headlines could trigger outsized market swings in very short order. That’s why traders are treading carefully now—the cost of being wrong is higher than usual.

FAQs:

Q1. Why are U.S. stock futures today flat ahead of Nvidia earnings?
Because traders are cautious, waiting to see if Nvidia’s results will boost or shake the AI-led rally.

Q2. Which stocks are moving the most despite flat U.S. stock futures today?
MongoDB, Okta, nCino, Cracker Barrel, and PVH are among the biggest gainers on strong earnings.