Elon Musk Predicted Tesla’s Stock Will “Be Worth More Than Apple and Saudi Aramco Combined”—Is It Still Possible?
Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk is known for his bold proclamations, ambitious goals, and ability to generate some of the most innovative technologies on the planet into existence seemingly through sheer will. With this comes, frankly, a lot of missed predictions, however.
In October 2022, Elon Musk made one such bold proclamation during Tesla’s earnings call: “I see a potential path for Tesla to be worth more than Apple and Saudi Aramco combined.” At the time, this assertion raised eyebrows across the financial world, and likely still does today. At the time, Tesla’s stock was coming off a rally and dropping fast. Fast forward to May 2025, and while Tesla has made significant strides, it’s still hard to see a path forward for this goal. But is it even in the realm of possibility?
As of mid-May 2025, Tesla’s market capitalization stands at approximately $1.10 trillion, marking a substantial increase from its 2022 valuation of around $700 billion. This growth is noteworthy, especially considering the challenges Tesla has faced, including intensified competition and market fluctuations.
In contrast, Apple (AAPL) maintains its position as a tech behemoth with a market cap of about $3.10 trillion. Saudi Aramco, the oil giant, holds a market valuation of approximately $2 trillion. Combined, Apple and Saudi Aramco’s valuations amount to roughly $5.1 trillion, still significantly higher than Tesla’s current market cap.
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Tesla’s journey since Musk’s 2022 statement has been marked by both achievements and setbacks. The company has re-entered the exclusive “$1 trillion club,” buoyed by recent stock rallies. However, Tesla faces stiff competition from companies like BYD (BYDDY), which has surpassed Tesla in electric vehicle sales and revenue. Moreover, Tesla’s sales in key markets like China and Europe have suffered declines, emphasizing the challenges in maintaining global dominance.
Musk’s wildly ambitious vision for Tesla is not unprecedented. Throughout his career, he has made audacious predictions, some of which have materialized against the odds. From revolutionizing the automotive industry with electric vehicles to pioneering private space exploration with SpaceX, Musk’s track record showcases his ability to turn visionary ideas into reality. His 2022 prediction about Tesla’s valuation, while not yet realized, aligns with his history of setting lofty goals to drive innovation and growth.
In recent developments, Musk has continued to position Tesla at the forefront of technological advancement. Tesla’s continued investment in autonomous technology and robotics represents a significant pathway toward achieving Elon Musk’s ambitious valuation goal.
One of Tesla’s most anticipated products, its fleet of autonomous taxis, has the potential to disrupt the global transportation industry. Musk has repeatedly touted self-driving capabilities as a cornerstone of Tesla’s future, envisioning a network of vehicles capable of operating without human intervention. If successfully deployed at scale, Tesla’s robotaxi service could generate billions in annual revenue, dramatically increasing profit margins due to reduced operational and labor costs.
Moreover, by tapping into a global rideshare market valued in the hundreds of billions, autonomous taxis could become a transformative source of recurring income, significantly boosting Tesla’s overall market value. But even this isn’t a sure thing, as it’s unclear how long before this vision will come to reality, and competitors like Alphabet’s (GOOGL)(GOOG) Waymo are already dominating the market.
Similarly, Tesla’s advancements in robotics, notably the humanoid robot “Optimus,” introduced by Musk, offer additional avenues for substantial market expansion. Optimus, designed to perform repetitive and physically demanding tasks, holds the promise of reshaping multiple industries, including manufacturing, logistics, retail, and elder care.
By deploying these robots, Tesla could unlock efficiencies and productivity gains across its own factories, while simultaneously tapping into the broader robotics market, projected to reach tens of billions in value over the next decade. Successfully commercializing humanoid robots would further solidify Tesla’s reputation as an innovation leader, attracting both investor interest and consumer confidence, ultimately contributing significantly to the realization of Musk’s grand valuation ambitions.
While Tesla has not yet surpassed the combined valuations of Apple and Saudi Aramco, its trajectory since Musk’s bold claim indicates a company striving to redefine its industry. With continued innovation and strategic expansion, Tesla remains a formidable player in the global market, embodying Musk’s relentless pursuit of transformative progress – although it’s still quite a ways from that $5 trillion-plus market cap.
On the date of publication, Caleb Naysmith did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.