EU rifts open even before Trump trade war gets rolling

And so it happens, even as their diplomats back the Commission’s retaliation strategy behind closed doors in Brussels, that national leaders sound off — as Meloni did to Italian lawmakers on Tuesday — in an attempt to avoid the wrath of an antagonistic Trump.

“There’s the necessity also to have messages that are politically palatable for domestic audiences,” Demarais explained. “Some countries are playing this game masterfully; of the divergence between declarations, which may be for domestic political reasons, and the reality of what is going to happen.” 

The same dynamic played out last year as trade tensions escalated with Beijing over electric vehicles — and a decade ago over solar panels. 

Responding to the imposition of EU duties on made-in-China electric vehicles in October, Beijing retaliated against premium European distilled alcohol. Everyone realized that the real target was French cognac, and that China was punishing Paris for nudging the Commission to launch an investigation that found evidence of unfair state aid to Chinese EV-makers.

“The French are the most vocal. They’re the most offensive in defending their interests, which is why they get more retaliation. This is a classic example which we’ve also seen with China,” said one EU diplomat, granted anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on the record.

Germany, Spain and Belgium, meanwhile, rushed to send high-level officials to Beijing to showcase their friendly ties with China. They often returned home touting symbolic concessions from President Xi Jinping — on visas, for example, or pork. 

“It’s a classic case of defending your economic interests,” a second diplomat observed. 

Giovanna Coi contributed reporting.