Evolution of Value-Based Investing – How Math and Machines Are Chasing Crypto’s Elusive Alpha

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The cryptocurrency ecosystem is attracting more financial professionals, drawn by its volatility and potential for outsized returns.

According to EY’s 2025 Institutional Investor Digital Assets Survey, institutional enthusiasm for digital assets continues to rise – with over 70% of professional investors now allocating to the sector.

By leveraging tailored algorithms, data models and machine learning, finance experts – known as ‘quants’ – are increasingly seeking alpha in crypto.

The industry’s evolution over the past few years has given rise to data-driven investing.

While the quantitative models being adopted for crypto are not new, notably, they are the same statistical tools long used by quants to capitalize on inefficiencies in traditional markets.

As an extension of their influence, these professionals are now deploying a similar alpha-fishing strategy to the younger, faster and more vibrant crypto ecosystem.

The rise of quantitative investing in crypto

To understand the subject, it’s important to first understand ‘alpha.’

In finance, alpha is best described as a performance measure that represents the excess return of an investment/asset relative to an established benchmark index.

One of the most striking features of the crypto market is its volatility.

However, these massive fluctuations generate a lot of data, which, when properly studied, can point quants to the next big trend to bet on.

Considering the nature of the industry, the idea of quantitative strategies is now very common in volatile markets, like FX and crypto.

The pursuit of alpha now extends across various markets, including the DeFi (decentralized finance) ecosystem.

Beyond offering massive diversification, the DeFi space presents potential alpha opportunities, though these can be short-lived.

However, despite this potential for high returns, the DeFi ecosystem remains in a transitory phase, characterized by a growing influx of corporate investors.

The 2025 Chainalysis Global Crypto Adoption Index shows an increasing share of institutional and corporate activity, signaling that DeFi is transitioning beyond its early retail dominance.

This dynamic shows that alpha opportunities, no matter how good, can be short-lived and may quickly turn negative.

Understanding this risk is crucial for new quants entering the market – particularly with the lack of definitive regulation governing the ecosystem.

To capture potential opportunities in crypto and DeFi, many quants aim for a first-mover advantage.

Here is why quants are betting big on quantitative investing in the crypto world.

• Evidence-based strategies – Alpha-oriented models can improve consistency in trade selection over time. This is crucial in order to benchmark progress over time.
• Systematic allocation – With the right alpha or quantitative strategy, portfolio managers can better adopt a systematic approach to crypto investments.
• Algorithmic trading development also depends on accessible, secure deployment frameworks.

Math is quietly revolutionizing the crypto space

Despite its youth, the crypto industry exhibits strong correlations with traditional markets. As a result, many traditional factor models can be successfully applied to crypto.

Research from MDPI’s Information Journal (2024) supports this.

Considering the size, volatility and capital or liquidity factors, the mathematical tools will require to be customized to achieve statistical significance.

There is one major catch with this trend – and that is the fact that the volatility offers a non-linear price trend.

As demonstrated over the past few years, ML (machine learning) models have shown promise in capturing complex patterns in crypto data.

Recent studies, such as ‘A Comprehensive Analysis of Machine Learning Models for Algorithmic Trading of Bitcoin’ confirm that advanced ML algorithms outperform traditional statistical methods in identifying non-linear relationships in crypto markets.

This has become an area of growing interest for quantitative investors, especially given the crypto market’s higher turnover over time, judging by Bitcoin returns versus the Nasdaq-100 Index.

The average retail investor may achieve gains using fundamental analysis alone.

However, the game changes when institutional capital enters the market, as it operates under client obligations and regulatory constraints.

In this case, alphas become central to their strategy as their margin for error is significantly smaller.

Manual investing can only take an investor so far, but with math models and strategies, investors can do much more.

The Canadian Association of Alternative Strategies and Assets cites “scale and rigor” as key reasons why quant strategies are vital in investing today.

Despite its revolutionary potential, the integration of alpha-seeking strategies in crypto is not yet mainstream – though this may change in the coming years.

Key quant strategies used in crypto investing

Drawing from years of development, the traditional financial ecosystem offers a wealth of quantitative methods that are now being adopted by the crypto industry.

Understanding some of these methods is highly important for investors who are looking for a disciplined, data-driven approach to investing.

Some of these quant methods are discussed below.

Arbitrage

The volatility in the crypto space creates enough room for arbitrage opportunities across trading platforms.

These inefficiencies allow traders to exploit pricing differentials across platforms.

Several strategies have emerged to capitalize on it, including spatial arbitrage, triangular arbitrage and cross-token arbitrage.

• The spatial arbitrage features buying an asset on one platform and selling it on another where the price is higher. Geographical location and currency differences are some of the factors that may help set up this arbitrage opportunity.
• Triangular arbitrage involves taking advantage of the price difference between three assets on the same trading venue. It’s often considered a low-risk model application to currencies with volatility.
• Cross-token arbitrage is niche-based and may well be applicable in the DeFi ecosystem.

Pairs trading and factor-based investing

Factor-based investing involves the application of quant filters to select assets. These filters are varied but mostly embodied as momentum, volatility and liquidity.

According to Fidelity Investments, in pairs trading, quants typically buy an undervalued asset while short-selling the overvalued one.

While this may require a better understanding of the market, it creates a structured channel for identifying potential pricing inefficiencies in crypto.

Sentiment analysis

Sentiment in the crypto industry is as volatile as the underlying assets themselves.

In reality, it is a primary market driver, as a single post from an influential figure or regulator can trigger significant positive or negative price movements, making sentiment analysis increasingly important.

Armed with this knowledge, quants are now using natural language processing to decode the emotional pulse of the market.

Volatility forecasting with machine learning

Accurately picking alpha from volatility trends is more difficult than simply identifying the patterns.

To this end, forecasting models are trained on historical data, including price, volume and sentiment, to predict future market movements.

The most advanced machine learning models integrate macro indicators and blockchain metrics.

This robust coverage allows quants to capture critical data-driven signals essential for shaping a successful investment portfolio.

Behavioral finance

Successfully trading the market in isolation is nearly impossible, which is why many active crypto investors organize into communities, share ideologies and at times, form cult-like groups.

There are likely discernible patterns within these communities that can be studied to predict otherwise irrational market moves.

With the increasing sophistication of quantitative analysis in crypto, behavioral finance models – such as prospect theory and herd behavior – are now critically important for understanding and shaping crypto investment.

The crypto market is showing signs of maturation, with a growing presence of institutional investors alongside retail participants.

By deploying mathematical and algorithmic models, investors are shifting toward a disciplined, analytical framework that prioritizes data over hype and emotion.

The era of relying on intuition is fading, replaced by a growing dependence on algorithms, statistical models and machine learning to uncover new opportunities.

These tools can help reduce cognitive biases in investment decisions.

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Vugar is an award-winning senior manager and communications expert with 15 years of progressive hands-on experience spanning Fortune 500 giants to dynamic startups, currently serving as chief operating officer at Bitget. He previously assumed the role of chief marketing officer at Beincrypto and has held senior positions at renowned brands such as Carlsberg, Facebook, Danone, Coca-Cola, Twitter, SONY and more.

 

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