Federal immigration crackdown slowing Texas job growth

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The federal immigration crackdown is contributing to weak Texas job growth. That’s according to recent Texas Business Outlook Surveys by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

The findings from the surveys suggest federal policy changes on immigration will negatively impact one out of five Texas businesses this year when it comes to hiring and retaining foreign born workers.

Madeline Zavodny, an economics professor at the University of North Florida, said there is a lot of fear among the migrant community, especially among those without legal status.

“They’re afraid to go shopping. They’re afraid to take their kids to school. They’re afraid to go to church, and perhaps most importantly right now, they are afraid to go to work,” she said.

Zavodny was one of the authors of a report that grew out of the surveys that found 40% of businesses reported their migrant employees missed work out of fear of immigration enforcement.

She said employers worry a lot they are losing a trained workforce that is hard to get back.

“They’re very worried about how many foreign-born workers are staying home and even just leaving. Either leaving the state or even leaving the country,” said Zavodny.

Zavodny said migrants contribute to population growth, which in turn leads to economic growth. Zavodny said Sun Belt states can offset some of that migrant population loss by U.S. citizens moving in from other states.

She said she expected the slower job growth in Texas to continue as long as the same federal immigration policies are in place.

Slower economic growth comes from less immigration—even if it doesn’t affect unemployment rates.

The survey indicates that the “U.S. born workforce cannot make up for reduced immigration due to demographic pressures, including an aging population and low birth rates.”

Technology could offset some of the issues with the decline in labor supply. This includes artificial intelligence, mechanization and innovation in technology.

One other stark statistic from the survey portends more about the implications of immigration on the labor market. Looking ahead to the year 2031, it is predicted that “all growth in the U.S. population is expected to come from immigration.” In that case, when immigration policies are set, “the speed limit for the economy” would follow.