Financial Market Morning Report_September 29, 2026 (Tue)_Higher Oil Prices → Rising Interest Rates_Stocks, Gold, and Crypto Assets Fall Simultaneously
[Conclusion for this morning]
The main players this morning are once again crude oil and U.S. long-term interest rates.
Brent crude rose to $107.67 and WTI crude to $93.98. Due to inflation concerns stemming from higher oil prices, U.S. long-term interest rates rose, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching the 5.2% range.
All three major U.S. stock indices fell. Gold dropped by approximately 4%, and Bitcoin also fell to around $83,000.
Higher oil prices
↓
Inflation concerns
↓
Expectations of additional Fed rate hikes
↓
Rising U.S. interest rates
↓
Stronger dollar
↓
Headwinds for stocks, gold, and crypto assets
The point to note this morning is that even gold is being sold off, despite rising geopolitical risks.
The market is more focused on the path of War → Oil → Inflation → Monetary Policy than on the war itself.
① Foreign Exchange
USD/JPY_157 yen range
The dollar index is around 101. The USD/JPY pair is trading in the 157 yen range.
While dollar buying continues due to rising U.S. long-term interest rates, the yen is being supported on the Japanese side by concerns over interest rate hikes and currency intervention.
Rather than looking at USD/JPY alone, this is a phase where we want to check it in conjunction with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield.
② Interest Rate/Bond Market
U.S. 10-year Treasury_5.2% range
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to the 5.2% range.
The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield also briefly reached its highest level since 2004.
The market is pricing in about a 70% chance of an additional rate hike at the October FOMC, and the focus is on,
“Can stocks withstand 5.2%?”
from,
“If the 5.2% level persists, how much can risk assets withstand?”
is shifting.
③ US Stocks
All three major indices fell
NY Dow
51,481.51
Change from previous day -347.11
-0.67%
S&P 500
7,683.69
Change from previous day -59.72
-0.77%
Nasdaq
26,820.38
Change from previous day -248.34
-0.92%
All three major indices fell.
Meanwhile, NVIDIA is showing relative strength against the backdrop of expanded share buybacks, and a selective market continues where capital remains in individual stocks even if the overall index is weak.
④ Japanese Stocks
Nikkei 225_First decline in 6 trading days
Nikkei 225
65,877.62
Change from previous day -486.58
-0.73%
Although it rose to the 67,000 yen level at one point in the morning, profit-taking and selling of semiconductor stocks subsequently became dominant.
Since the impact of dividend ex-dates will also appear on September 29,
it is necessary to distinguish between
mechanical index declines and actual selling
.
⑤ Commodities
Crude Oil_Rising again
Brent Crude
$107.67
+3.1%
WTI Crude
$93.98
+1.7%
Crude oil prices have risen again due to uncertainty surrounding US-Iran peace talks.
Expectations for mediation have since emerged, and the oil market remains sensitive to the situation in the Middle East.
Gold _ Down approximately 4%
Spot gold fell to as low as $4,110.55 during trading.
This reached its lowest level in about seven weeks, since August 5.
Normally, rising geopolitical risk tends to be a buying factor for gold, but this time the impact of rising US interest rates and a stronger dollar prevailed.
⑥ Shipping and Logistics
Costs not visible from crude oil prices alone
Due to the turmoil around the Strait of Hormuz, the impact on logistics continues, including ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman and tight supply and demand for tankers.
It is not just crude oil prices that should be watched.
Crude oil prices
+ Tanker freight rates
+ Insurance premiums
+ Transport efficiency
By looking at these four factors together, it becomes easier to see how far energy prices will ripple into the real economy.
⑦ Crypto Assets
Bitcoin _ Around $83,000
Bitcoin fell to around $83,000.
This time, rather than factors specific to crypto assets, it was a case of being caught up in a macro risk-off move:
Rising oil prices
→ Rising US interest rates
→ Stronger dollar
→ Falling stock prices
as a result.
⑧ Where is the money now?
Capital flows on the 28th
Long-term bonds → Sell
Dollar → Buy
US stocks → Sell. However, some stocks are still attracting capital
Crypto assets → Sell
Gold → Sell
Crude oil → Buy
In short, this is not a typical “flight to safety” market.
It is closer to a market that is adjusting the prices of all assets in anticipation of reignited inflation and rising interest rates.
⚠️ Today’s market anomaly
Geopolitical risk is up, yet gold is down.
Usually,
Geopolitical risk rises
→ Demand for safe assets
→ Gold rises
is the typical pattern.
However, this time,
Geopolitical risk rises
→ Crude oil rises
→ Inflation concerns
→ Interest rates rise and the dollar strengthens
→ Gold falls
is what is happening.
This is the most interesting point this morning.
The market is looking at how the war will impact monetary policy rather than the “war” itself.
🔄 Market PDCA
【Previous focus point】
Can stock prices, especially AI and semiconductor stocks, hold up even with the 10-year US Treasury yield in the 5.2% range?
【Reality】
Crude oil prices have strengthened again, and upward pressure on interest rates continues.
Selling has spread not only to US stocks but also to gold and crypto assets.
【Revision of outlook】
It is not enough to just ask, “Can stocks withstand high interest rates?”
From now on,
how long the rise in crude oil prices will continue
→ inflation expectations
→ FRB rate hike expectations
→ US interest rates
→ stocks, gold, and crypto assets
must be tracked as a single line.
📌 Things to watch today
1. US 10-year Treasury bond: 5.2% range
Will it break higher, or will it settle down?
2. Brent crude oil: $107 range
Will it head toward $110 again?
3. Gold: 7-week low range
Will it be bought back if interest rate hikes stop?
4. Bitcoin: Around $83,000
Will risk-off sentiment spread further?
5. Japanese stocks: Real strength after dividend ex-date
Look at the actual trading strength excluding the dividend drop.
6. Interest rate pricing ahead of Wednesday’s PCE
This week, Wednesday’s PCE and Friday’s employment report are important.
Beyond the indicators themselves, look at how US interest rates and rate hike pricing change in response to the results.
In a nutshell,
“Crude oil has once again become the starting point for the financial markets.”
Middle East situation
→ Crude oil/Logistics
→ Inflation
→ FRB
→ Interest rates
→ Stocks, Forex, Gold, Crypto assets
This morning, the entire market is quite easy to understand when viewed through this single thread.
*This report is a personal memo that organizes market movements based on publicly available information. It does not recommend the buying or selling of any specific financial products. Since market conditions are constantly changing, please make your own final investment decisions.
While connecting global news as a line rather than as isolated points,
I organize ‘why these prices are moving now’ every morning.
I usually work as a fortune teller in Ginza and Odaiba.
I help people organize their love lives, careers, and relationships using Sanmeigaku, palmistry, and oracle cards.
Why does a fortune teller follow finance and global affairs every morning?
Simply because it is fun to watch the world move.
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