Food banks serve US government workers on first missed payday of shutdown

Natalie Sherman
New York business reporter

For those on Wall Street, one of the biggest signs of the shutdown is the absence of economic data being published by the government.

Compared to the loss of a paycheque, that may not seem like a huge deal.

But analysts worry it is clouding our understanding of the economy at a perilous moment, raising the risk we might stumble into trouble and making it harder to respond.

Heading into the shutdown, consumer spending was softening, job creation had slowed, and inflation was starting to pick up. The US central bank had cut interest rates a bit but was divided about how many more cuts might be appropriate.

That debate would ordinarily be informed by the government’s inflation and jobs reports.

But otherwise, in the words of many Wall Street analysts, we are “flying blind”.

Delayed inflation report offers some insight

However, this morning the Labor Department published its monthly report on inflation.

Originally due out on 15 October, it was delayed by the shutdown. The Treasury Department ultimately ordered some of its staff back to work in order to publish report, which is used to calculate cost of living adjustments to Social Security retirement benefits.

The report showed inflation hitting 3% for the first time since January, as prices continued to climb for beef, furniture, haircuts, daycare, airfare and many other items.

The Social Security Administration said payments next year would rise by 2.8%, reflecting the uptick in costs in recent months.

With that question resolved and no clear end to the shutdown in sight, it may be the last we hear officially on price inflation – or any other economic data – for a while.