From commodities to capital markets: Expert insights on 2082 Samvat trends
As we step into the new Samvat, investors are keen to know which sectors and funds are likely to perform well.
In a Diwali special edition of Mutual Fund Corner, CNBC-TV18 spoke with Ashish Gupta, CIO of Axis AMC, and Ajay Khandelwal, Fund Manager at Motilal Oswal AMC, about trends in equities, commodities, and mutual funds.
Commodities: Precious metals shine
When asked about gold and silver ETFs, Ashish Gupta explained, “Within commodities, we have not seen a broad-based rally. Precious metals like gold and silver have done well. More recently, copper has also started performing, but energy commodities have not done well at all because global demand outlook continues to be weak.”
He explained that gold and silver have performed well because currencies serve both as a medium of exchange and a store of value. Over the past one to two years, weakening confidence in US policy-making has prompted investors and central banks to seek alternative stores of value, leading to increased investments in these precious metals.
However, Gupta cautioned investors not to expect the same returns as the past few years: “Gold is now up 40% each in 2024 and 2025. I don’t think people should invest with that kind of return expectation in the short run. But as a store of value, these are important assets.”
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Sectors to watch in the New Samvat
Khandelwal highlighted his sectoral preferences for the coming year. He expects the financial sector to benefit from lower interest rates, with improved lending growth, better margins, and easing asset quality challenges. NBFCs are likely to expand faster and gain market share.
Healthcare and urban consumption are anticipated to continue performing well, while certain intermediaries in the capital markets appear undervalued due to price corrections that exceed their actual business performance, presenting potential opportunities.
Gupta added three more themes: defence, driven by increased domestic and global spending and push for indigenisation; consumption, benefiting from changing patterns among Gen Z and new channels; and specialty manufacturing and automation, which are seeing companies gain global market share.
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Mutual fund strategies for SIP investors
When asked about investment choices for SIPs, both experts recommended multi-cap funds. Gupta said, “After the pullback over the past 12 months, it’s a good time to be investing in equities.”
Khandelwal added, “These are good opportunities where markets have given practically no return in consecutive years. Add to your SIP amount and take advantage of it.”
On managing volatility, Gupta emphasised, “Stay disciplined. Use volatility as an ally rather than a threat. Use pullbacks in the market to stay consistent with your SIPs.”
For the entire discussion, watch the accompanying video