From Crude Oil To Wheat, Commodities Trade Like The Ukraine-Russia War Is Over

Three and a half years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine sent shockwaves through global markets, commodity prices have largely reset.

Back in late February 2022, right as the war broke out, prices for everything from oil to wheat exploded.

The Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund DBC—which tracks 14 key physical commodities—rallied 15.1% in just one week, its biggest move since launching in 2006.

From December 2021 through June 2022, it beat the U.S. stock market – tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY – every month, racking up a 65% outperformance.

That surge came as the global economy exited the pandemic with pent-up demand, massive stimulus, and limited supply, particularly across energy and agricultural sectors.

The war in Ukraine only worsened supply constraints and added a geopolitical premium that traders rushed to price in.

But in commodities, high prices often cure high prices.

Energy Panic Of 2022 Is Over

Crude oil, tracked by the United States Oil Fund USO, hit $130 a barrel in March 2022—levels unseen since just before the 2008 financial crash.

U.S. natural gas prices tripled between January and August 2022, soaring from $3 to nearly $9 per million British thermal units, as Europe scrambled to replace Russian pipeline supplies.

By August 2025, those fears have faded. Oil now trades around $62, and U.S. natural gas is below $3.

Supply chains have normalized, new production has come online, and the energy panic is largely history.

Wheat, Corn And The Grain Reset

The war’s impact wasn’t limited to fossil fuels. Ukraine and Russia together account for nearly 30% of global wheat exports.

When ports closed and shipping routes froze, wheat futures jumped to $13.60 per bushel in March 2022, well above the pre-war average of $7.

That spike proved temporary. Wheat, corn and soybeans are now back below their February 2022 levels. Demand adjusted, supply was rebuilt, and the war risk premium vanished.

Gold And Silver Aren’t Playing Along

But not every commodity has followed the script.

Gold – tracked by SPDR Gold Trust GLD – is now trading around $3,330 per ounce, an 85% surge from its February 2022 price near $1,800. Silver has climbed over 60%, rising from $23 to more than $38 per ounce.

These precious metals have shrugged off the typical boom-and-bust pattern seen in other commodities. A key reason? Unlike energy or agricultural products, precious metals – and gold in particular – aren’t consumed—they are stored.

“Unlike oil or natural gas—where price balances production and consumption—gold is not consumed. It is stored,” said Goldman Sachs analyst Lina Thomas in a recent report.

“That makes these traditional supply-demand models inadequate for gold.”

Where Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks Stand

Momentum is building around potential Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations following a high-stakes summits in recent days.

Last week, President Donald Trump met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, and two days later Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and top European leaders.

Trump expressed readiness to offer Ukraine a U.S.-backed security guarantee, potentially modeled on NATO’s Article 5, though details remain undefined.

Discussions are also underway to provide Kiev a potential $90–100 billion arms deal—European-financed, but U.S.-supplied—that could reshape the military balance.

Trump floated a trilateral meeting with Putin and Zelenskyy, and Ukraine signaled openness to negotiations. But no date is set, and Moscow has not confirmed its participation.

Putin’s demand that Ukraine cede the Donetsk region remains a major obstacle, firmly rejected by Kyiv and European leaders.

While leaders continue to negotiate a peace between Russia and Ukraine, commodity markets have long moved on.

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