GDP: US economy grows at slower-than-expected pace in third quarter as inflation falls

The US economy grew at a slightly less rapid pace than economists had expected in the third quarter.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of third quarter US gross domestic product (GDP) showed the economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.8% during the period, below the 2.9% growth expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The reading came in lower than the 3% growth in the second quarter.

While slightly below expectations, several economists noted the third quarter GDP print reflected strong economic growth. Capital Economics chief North America economist Paul Ashworth noted the report shows an economy growing at a solid pace.

“Overall, the US economy appears to be doing just fine,” Ashworth wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the “core” Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, grew by 2.2% in the second quarter, above estimates of 2.1% but significantly lower than the 2.8% gain in the prior quarter.

The data’s release comes as investors try to gauge how much more the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2024. Entering Wednesday’s release, markets are pricing in a 99% chance the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points at its meeting next week, per the CME FedWatch tool.

Read more: What the Fed rate cut means for bank accounts, CDs, loans, and credit cards

“Though GDP is backward-looking, it sends a clear message that the economy is doing well, and inflation is moderating, good news for the Federal Reserve,” Oxford Economics chief US economist Ryan Sweet wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday.

Sweet added, “Trend growth in GDP remains solid, reducing the risk of a sudden and significant increase in layoffs. This increases our conviction in our above-consensus forecast for growth next year.”

Wednesday’s GDP print showed the Fed has begun its interest rate cutting cycle while economic growth remains on solid footing and inflation is falling, a bullish backdrop for stocks, according to strategists.

Another major check on the health of the economy looms Friday with the October jobs report. Consensus expects the US economy added 110,000 jobs in October, a move lower from the 254,000 jobs added in September.

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

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