Generals Pour Cold Water on Canada Going to War With US as Videos Go Viral

Videos claiming Canada may be preparing for war with the United States spread across social media, but two retired U.S. military leaders told Newsweek that war between the two countries isn’t going to happen.

Why It Matters

President Donald Trump has repeatedly said he wants Canada to become the 51st state and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was caught on a hot mic recently saying Trump’s talk is a “real thing,” fueling concerns on social media about a conflict.

Videos of people sharing concerns that Canada is preparing for war amassed millions of views on platforms like TikTok.

Trump’s remarks, as well as his now-on-pause efforts to impose tariffs on imports, have indeed strained relations with Washington’s neighbor to the north, but there’s no concrete evidence that war is on the horizon, retired General Barry McCaffrey and Major General Randy Manner told Newsweek.

What To Know

In a video viewed 18 million times on TikTok, user Kat Arnett said many Canadians believe war is a real possibility and a serious concern, pointing to Trudeau’s comment, as well as Canadian boycotts of American goods.

“It’s a serious threat,” she said. “It is not a joke.”

Trump doubled down on his Canada talk during a press conference on Thursday, saying he believes Canada would be a “very serious contender” to become the 51st state.

“Canada, their taxes would come down greatly. Their security would go up greatly. Amazing things happened to Canada,” he said. “Why would we pay $200 billion a year in subsidies to Canada when they’re not a state. You do that for a state, but you don’t do that for somebody else’s country.”

In addition to talk of Canada becoming a state, Trump has also implemented tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum as part of an ongoing trade dispute. He sought to put into place more far-reaching tariffs, but they went on a 30-day pause starting February 3.

Kened Sadiku, spokesperson for Canada’s Department of National Defence, said when reached by Newsweek that the department “does not comment on hypothetical situations.” A spokesperson for Trudeau’s office also declined comment.

Newsweek also reached out to the White House for comment via email.

Will The U.S. Invade Canada?

Manner told Newsweek that the viral content is likely “99 percent bluster,” but that there is “virtually no possibility” Canada and the U.S. are headed for war.

“I think it’s nonsense,” he said. “I truly believe that, like anything in social media, everything in social media…everything is exaggerated, and it’s provided by and read by and forwarded by people who are like-minded who are trying to get the maximum number of hits to their feed.”

He dismissed Trump’s talk about annexing Canada as a message that appeals “to his base,” describing his rhetoric on Canada as being “basically a bully in the White House who is trying to intimidate our Canadian and Mexican neighbors.”

McCaffrey agreed that there’s no chance of a war between the U.S. and Canada.

“There will be no military conflict with Canada. Ever. There is zero probability of Canada ever agreeing to be a U.S. state,” he told Newsweek by email.

Trump’s comments about Canada are “absurd,” he said, noting that they are destroying the “enormous good will that exists with Canada our closest global partner.”

“We have a 5000 mile undefended border with Canada. The two nations are nearly totally integrated politically, economically, culturally, law enforcement, air and sea defense,” he said.

Manner said people who are concerned about the U.S. position on Canada should contact their political representatives and express their thoughts, but that social media dooming may be less productive.

“Take a deep breath, and quite frankly, resist the temptation to be clicking on things that are incendiary, and also don’t pass them on,” he said. “All you’re doing is fueling the flames [of anxiety]. It’s not constructive and not helpful. It makes you feel good for a minute, but it’s really not helpful.”

A YouGov poll, conducted among 1,030 Canadian adults from January 22 to 28, showed that 77 percent of Canadians oppose joining the U.S. Only 15 percent would back that proposal. The margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Has The U.S. Ever Gone To War With Canada?

The U.S. last went to war with Canada in the War of 1812, which began after the United States declared war on Great Britain in June 1812. The war was part of a broader global conflict between Great Britain and France, two of the largest global powers at the time.

The conflict was generally viewed as a stalemate. At the end of the war, the Treaty of Ghent restored pre-war boundaries in 1814.

Ever since that war, the U.S. and Canada have been close allies and trading partners.

What Is A Trade War?

A trade war is when two countries have a conflict over their trading practices, such as the tariffs imposed by Trump.

Trump campaigned on implementing 25 percent tariffs on goods imported from Canada and Mexico, and he quickly moved to do so upon his return to the White House. Canada responded with its own tariffs against American imports. The tariffs were put on pause after Canada and Mexico said they would increase border enforcement but could go back into place in early March.

McCaffrey said both countries stand to lose economic ground as a result of the tariffs.

“Threatening economic boycott or heavy tariffs would be hugely destructive to both nations’ GDP,” he said.

The U.S. has been in a trade war with China since 2018.

What People Are Saying

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, during a press conference on Wednesday: “Let’s be very clear. Conversations around the 51st state are a nonstarter. It’s never going to happen. But we have to take seriously what the president is saying and fold that into our thinking as we continue to stand up for Canada.”

Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair, during a meeting on Wednesday: “One of the things I think we need to be very clear to everyone, including Mr. Trump, is that Canadians will always stand up for our nation, our country. We’re prepared to defend ourselves as required, and that always sometimes requires sacrifice.”

National security adviser Mike Waltz, on NBC News’ Meet the Press on Sunday: “I think the Canadian people, many of them, would love to join the United States….What you’re seeing is a reassertion of American leadership in the Western Hemisphere, from the Arctic all the way down to the Panama Canal.”

What Happens Next

Tariffs may resume in early March, but the future of U.S.-Canada relations remains unclear at this point.