Global economy recession risks surge on US tariff shockwaves

[BENGALURU] Risks are high the global economy will slip into a recession this year, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll, with scores of them saying US President Donald Trump’s tariffs have damaged business sentiment.

Just three months ago, the same group of economists covering nearly 50 economies had expected the global economy to grow at a strong, steady clip.

But Trump’s push to redesign world trade by imposing tariffs on all US imports has sent shockwaves through financial markets, wiping out trillions of dollars in stock market value, and has shaken investors’ confidence in US assets as a safe haven, including the dollar.

While Trump has temporarily walked back on the heaviest of tariffs imposed on almost all trading partners for a few months, a 10 per cent blanket duty on all US imports remains, as well as a 145 per cent tariff on China, its largest trading partner.

“It’s hard enough for firms to think about July right now where they don’t know what the reciprocal tariffs are. Try and plan another year down the road. I mean, who knows what it looks like, let alone five years down the road,” James Rossiter, head of global macro strategy at TD Securities, said.

Faced with heightened uncertainties and century-high duties on goods, many global businesses have either withdrawn or cut revenue forecasts.

Showing an uncommon unanimity, none of the more than 300 economists polled April 1-28 said tariffs had a positive impact on business sentiment, with 92 per cent saying negative. Only 8 per cent said neutral, mostly from India and other emerging economies.

Three-quarters of economists cut their 2025 global growth forecast, bringing the median to 2.7 per cent from 3.0 per cent in a January poll. The International Monetary Fund was a tad higher at 2.8 per cent.

Individual economies surveyed showed a similar trend with median forecasts cut for 28 of the 48 economies polled.

Among the others, for 10 economies the consensus view was unchanged and for 10, including Argentina and Spain, the view was slightly upgraded from the previous poll based mainly on domestic developments.

The split for 2026 was nearly the same, suggesting the current downtrend in growth expectations that started with Trump imposing tariffs is deep and not an easy one to fix.

Asked about the risk of a global recession this year, a 60 per cent majority – 101 of 167 – said it was high or very high. Sixty-six said low including four who said very low.

“It’s a very difficult environment to be optimistic about growth,” said Timothy Graf, head of macro strategy for Europe, Middle East and Africa at State Street.

“We could get rid of tariffs today and it will still have done quite a lot of damage just strictly from the view of the US as a reliable actor in bilateral and multilateral agreements ranging from trade to common defence.”

The progress central banks have made over the past couple of years in taming the worst global inflation surge in decades by raising interest rates in quick succession is also expected to stall due to tariffs, which economists agree are inflationary.

“Cutting off your largest trading partner … is going to do all sorts of wild and not so wonderful things to prices and that’s going to have all sorts of negative impacts on real incomes and ultimately demand,” State Street’s Graf added.

“It’s a situation where the possibility we enter a stagflationary environment has always been quite low but I think is now higher.”

Stagflation is usually defined as an extended period of no or low growth, high inflation and rising unemployment.

A more than 65 per cent majority – 19 of 29 major central banks polled – were not expected to meet their inflation targets this year, with that number dropping slightly to 15 for next year. REUTERS