Gold edges lower but set for third weekly gain, as U.S. rate-cut bets rise
Gold prices held steady on Thursday, while a firmer dollar and fading hopes for near-term interest rate cuts due to higher oil prices continued to weigh.
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Gold prices inched up on Friday and headed for a weekly gain as the U.S. dollar weakened following the U.S.-Iran truce, though market participants continued to assess its durability and implications for interest rates.
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,778.89 per ounce in early trading Friday. It has gained over 2% so far this week. U.S. gold futures fell 0.3% to $4,804.00.
“Gold buyers are carefully reclaiming the narrative this week with higher lows every day helped by the tentative ceasefire,” independent metals trader Tai Wong said. “Expect a significant battle ahead of $5,000; a break back above could re-ignite the bull run.”
The two-day-old ceasefire has halted a campaign of U.S. and Israeli air strikes on Iran, but it has yet to ease the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or quell a parallel conflict between Israel and Iran’s Hezbollah allies in Lebanon.
“As we’ve seen tensions in the Middle East de-escalate, there has been a little higher expectation of potentially seeing lower interest rates at some point, and the dollar came under pressure,” which has seen gold well supported, said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.
The U.S. dollar was on track for a weekly drop, making dollar-denominated gold cheaper for holders of other currencies.
Data showed that U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in nearly four years in March as the war boosted oil prices and the pass-through from tariffs persisted.
Continued high inflation limits central banks’ ability to cut interest rates. While bullion is seen as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, its attraction fades in a high-rate environment due to the absence of yield.
Elsewhere, gold demand in India picked up slightly this week ahead of a key festival, although elevated prices weighed on sentiment, while premiums in China narrowed.
In other metals, spot silver rose 1.7% to $76.34 per ounce, platinum lost 2.5% to $2,050.99, and palladium fell 2.5% to $1,518.66. All three metals headed for weekly gains.