Gold Prices Likely to Stay Bullish Through 2025: Report
New Delhi: Gold prices in India are expected to maintain an upside bias for the rest of 2025, driven by a projected uptrend in global gold prices and a weakening Indian rupee, according to a sectoral update by ICICI Bank Global Markets.
The report projects an equilibrium range of USD/Rs at 87.00–89.00 for the fourth quarter of 2025 (Q4 2025) and the first half of 2026. It further added that domestic gold prices are expected to trade between Rs 1,20,000 and Rs 1,35,000 per 10 grams through the remainder of 2025, and could rise further to Rs 1,30,000–Rs 1,45,000 in the first half of 2026.
However, risks remain tilted to the upside, particularly if the rupee weakens more than anticipated or global gold prices exceed current forecasts, the report added. In India, the spot rate is currently around Rs 1.31 lakh per 10 grams on MCX.
Earlier, in an interview with ANI, Anantha Padmanaban, founder member and former chairman of the All India Gem & Jewellery Domestic Council (GJC), said gold prices are expected to hit a record level of Rs 1.50 lakh per 10 grams in the coming months. He attributed the unprecedented momentum in both global and domestic markets to central bank purchases and strong public demand, particularly in China and Japan.
The report added that structural, investment-related demand for the yellow metal is visible in ETF flows, which have remained firm. SPDR ETF holdings in gold increased from 975 tonnes as of September 13, 2025, to 1,015 tonnes as of October 13, 2025. On the other hand, speculative net long positions decreased by roughly 8,000 over the past month.
Domestic gold prices have risen by 16 per cent over the last month, driven by a rise in global prices and depreciation in the INR against the USD. At the same time, gold imports surged from USD 5.44 billion in August to USD 9.6 billion in September, indicating that local market demand remains firm.
“With the onset of the festive season, gold demand in India is expected to pick up, which should keep imports high. Although traditionally Indian households prefer physical gold in the form of jewellery, coins, and bars, the ongoing rally has seen urban investors increasingly favour ETFs,” the report said.
The World Gold Council reported that India’s physically backed gold ETFs recorded their biggest-ever monthly inflow in September. The report further highlighted that the surge came as investors turned to gold amid weak stock market returns and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
“The ETF demand-related demand for gold is expected to remain fairly solid,” it added.