Gold Well-Positioned; Bullish Scenario Will See 40 PC Gain in 2025
Chennai: The fundamentals of gold remain well positioned to support tactical and strategic investment decisions in the current macro landscape, finds the World Gold Council. Having moved up 26 per cent in the first half of 2025, gold prices have the potential to rise an additional 10–15 per cent in H2 and close the year almost 40 per cent higher in a bullish scenario.
Gold enters the second half of 2025 coming off an exceptionally strong start to the year – up 26 per cent, shaped by a weaker US dollar, persistent geopolitical risk, robust investor demand, and continued central bank purchases.
While some of these drivers are expected to persist, the path forward remains highly dependent on multiple factors, including trade tensions, inflation dynamics, and monetary policy.
Consensus expectations suggest a relatively steady finish for gold with moderate upside potential if macro conditions hold. Gold could also be partly supported by contributions from new institutional investors, such as Chinese insurance companies.
A more volatile geopolitical and geoeconomic scenario could push gold significantly higher, particularly if more substantial stagflation or recession risks materialise and investor appetite for safe-haven assets grows.
Gold would perform strongly in such an environment, potentially rising an additional 10–15 per cent in H2 and closing the year almost 40 per cent higher.
On the flip side – while seemingly unlikely given the current environment – widespread and sustained global trade normalisation would bring higher yields and resurgent risk appetite, challenging gold’s momentum. Gold could also be tested by a visible deceleration in central bank demand beyond current expectations.
In this scenario, gold could retreat by 12–17 per cent in H2, finishing the year with positive but low double-digit or even single-digit returns.
“In all, given the intrinsic limitations of forecasting the global economy, we believe that gold – through its fundamentals – remains well positioned to support tactical and strategic investment decisions in the current macro landscape,” said WGC.