GreenBee (3913) Earnings Analysis: Highest Profit Since Founding in First Half. Commentary on US Midterm Elections and Renewable Energy Stocks｜株らすた

I will start with the conclusion. The financial results for GreenBee (3913) for the second quarter (first half) of the fiscal year ending December 2026 are strong. The interim net profit for the first half is the highest since the company’s founding, and operating profit is approximately double that of the same period last year. Progress toward the full-year forecast has reached 60.1% for operating profit and 70.2% for net profit.

Despite this, the stock price is 1,210 yen, and the company-forecast P/E ratio is 13.81x (as of the closing price on November 2, 2026). Furthermore, because it has a GX service business that handles storage batteries, it could become a target for theme-based buying related to renewable energy, depending on the results of the US midterm elections. In this article, I will organize both the earnings figures and the perspective on that theme.

I will check the earnings summary, earnings presentation materials, business strategy presentation materials, the IR official website, and timely disclosures in order, and look at the figures one by one.

Overall Earnings Picture: Sales Up 1.6x, Operating Profit Up Approximately 2x

The first half from January to June 2026 yielded the following results:

• Net Sales: 640 million yen (up 56.7% year-on-year)

• Operating Profit: 125 million yen (up 97.6%; operating profit margin 19.6%)

• Ordinary Profit: 121 million yen (up 96.2%)

• Interim Net Profit Attributable to Owners of Parent: 128 million yen (up 93.9%)

• Interim Net Profit per Share: 61.63 yen (28.26 yen in the same period last year)

First-half net sales exceeded 600 million yen for the first time in 10 years since the first half of 2016. The operating profit margin rose 4.1 points from 15.6% in the same period last year to 19.6%. The cost of sales ratio fell from 38.1% to 31.4%, creating a structure where more profit remains as sales increase.

This is the first page of the earnings summary. The full-year forecast is 1,308 million yen in net sales, 208 million yen in operating profit, 198 million yen in ordinary profit, and 182 million yen in net profit. There are no revisions in the first-half earnings report.

This is the consolidated earnings highlight from the earnings presentation materials. Net sales, operating profit, and interim net profit for the first half all grew. The company notes regarding interim net profit that it has reached a record high since its founding.

The main profit driver is the DX service business: sales are up approximately 3x

The center of this growth is the DX service business, which handles the monthly subscription service “GreenBee Cloud Backup” that saves smartphone data to the cloud. First-half sales by business segment are as follows:

• DX Service Business: 350 million yen (119 million yen in the same period last year)

• Technology Licensing Business: 284 million yen (278 million yen in the same period last year)

• GX Service Business: 5 million yen (10 million yen in the same period last year)

This shows the trend in net sales by business segment. The DX Services business expanded to approximately three times the level of the same period last year.

The key metrics for “GreenBee Cloud Backup” are as follows:

• Number of paid subscription contracts: 503,000 (as of the end of June 2026; 368,000 as of the end of December 2025)

• Monthly new acquisitions: 28,000 (average for Q1 and Q2; annual KPI target is 25,000)

• Monthly churn rate: 1.4% (same as above; KPI target is 1.4%)

• Monthly recurring revenue: 139% compared to December 2025 (KPI target is 160%)

The company self-evaluates the three metrics of contract count, new acquisitions, and recurring revenue as “better than expected,” and the churn rate as “as expected.”

This is the KPI progress page from the earnings presentation materials. The company indicates the progress of each metric as “◎ (better than expected)” or “〇 (as expected).”

On the left is the first-half performance and full-year plan for net sales by business, and on the right is the trend in the number of paid contracts. The number of contracts has grown approximately 18-fold in less than three years, from 28,000 at the end of 2023 to 503,000 at the end of June 2026. The year-end KPI target is 580,000.

Quality of earnings: Tax refunds are boosting net income

Beyond just the positive points, we also examine the substance of the figures. In the first half, net income of 121 million yen was exceeded by interim net income of 128 million yen. This is because corporate taxes and other items resulted in a negative 6 million yen (a factor increasing profit), which is attributed to a 36 million yen increase in deferred tax assets. The company also cites the recording of corporate tax adjustments as the reason for the increase in interim net income.

To look at the strength of the core business, operating profit of 125 million yen and ordinary profit of 121 million yen are closer to the actual situation. Even so, the growth of approximately two times compared to the same period last year remains unchanged.

The full-year forecast of 182 million yen in net income, which is a 10.5% decrease from the previous year, is based on the premise of reviewing the recoverability of deferred tax assets. Since first-half net income has already reached 70.2% of the full-year forecast, there is room in the forecast in this regard.

GX Services Business: Grid-scale battery storage has entered full-scale operation

The pillar of the GX Services business is the grid-scale battery storage business. At the company’s own “Bizen City Honami High-Voltage No. 2 Storage Station,” acquired on February 27, 2026, trading on the Japan Electric Power Exchange (JEPX) began on June 1, and trading on the Electricity Supply-Demand Adjustment Market (EPRX) began on July 15.

• Location: Bizen City, Okayama Prefecture

• Battery system rated output: 1,999 kW, battery rated capacity: 8,140 kWh

• Operation period: 20 years

• Business entity: GreenBee Energy Co., Ltd.

According to the company’s explanation, revenue from the supply-demand adjustment market is the primary component of the storage station’s revenue structure, and with this launch, the storage station has entered a full-scale operational phase. By providing primary adjustment power in the Chugoku Electric Power Network area, it aims to contribute to the stabilization of power supply and demand and the effective utilization of renewable energy.

This is a timely disclosure from July 15, 2026. The start of trading in the supply-demand adjustment market was announced here.

However, sales for the GX service business in the first half remained at 5 million yen. Since the full-year plan is 112 million yen, it is necessary to accumulate approximately 107 million yen in the second half. The figures indicate that this business is still in the process of ramping up.

This is the GX service business page on the official IR website. It describes the policy of providing storage battery systems and related renewable energy products as a one-stop service, from consulting to installation and operation.

Financials and full-year forecast: The equity ratio is maintained at 66.2%

• Total assets: 1,829 million yen (1,676 million yen at the end of the previous fiscal year)

• Net assets: 1,210 million yen (1,390 million yen at the end of the previous fiscal year)

• Equity ratio: 66.2% (82.9% at the end of the previous fiscal year)

• Cash and deposits: 725 million yen (1,276 million yen at the end of the previous fiscal year)

• Long-term borrowings: 380 million yen (80 million yen at the end of the previous fiscal year)

The decrease of 551 million yen in cash and deposits is due to the acquisition of storage stations (tangible fixed assets increased by 589 million yen) and the acquisition of treasury stock. Long-term borrowings increased by 300 million yen as funds for the acquisition of storage stations. 306,000 shares of treasury stock were acquired for 315 million yen. The average price is approximately 1,030 yen per share, which is lower than the current stock price of 1,210 yen.

Even after subtracting borrowings (430 million yen, including those scheduled for repayment within one year) from cash and deposits, there is a surplus of approximately 295 million yen. The company is simultaneously pursuing growth investments and shareholder returns while maintaining financial flexibility.

The full-year forecast for the fiscal year ending December 2026 remains unchanged from the announcement on February 13, 2026.

• Net sales: 1,308 million yen (36.1% increase year-on-year)

• Operating profit: 208 million yen (26.6% increase)

• Ordinary profit: 198 million yen (18.0% increase)

• Net income attributable to owners of the parent: 182 million yen (10.5% decrease)

This is the page for the earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending December 2026, found in the business strategy presentation materials dated March 24, 2026. The sales plan by business segment is: DX Service Business 731 million yen (2.1 times the previous term), GX Service Business 112 million yen (5.3 times the same), and Technology Licensing Business 465 million yen (21.6% decrease from the same).

What if the Democrats win? Perspectives on the US midterm elections and renewable energy-related stocks

From here on, I will address the requested topic. November 3, 2026, is the voting day for the US midterm elections. As of the time of writing this article, the results are not yet in. It is expected that the vote counting status will be reported starting from November 4, Japan time.

In an analysis dated November 3, 2026, by the US investment information site Trefis, it is stated that in prediction markets, the probability of the Democratic Party taking the House of Representatives is about 94%, and about three-quarters for the Senate. Based on this premise, there is an expectation that “if the Democrats win, capital might return to renewable energy-related stocks.”

I will organize my perspective.

• The path for capital inflow is through “expectations of future policy.” If the Democratic Party gains influence in Congress, the association that support for renewable energy will be maintained or expanded will work, making it easier for buying to enter US renewable energy-related stocks.

• In phases where capital flows into US themes, buying interest can sometimes spread to domestic small-cap stocks involved in storage batteries and renewable energy due to association. GreenBee handles storage batteries in its GX Service Business and could become a target of this association.

• Stocks with a small market capitalization of about 2.8 billion yen have the characteristic that their stock prices are easily moved even by small amounts of capital.

On the other hand, there are facts that should be viewed calmly. The same Trefis analysis states that because the President has veto power, tax credits that have already expired will not return until at least 2029. The $7,500 credit for electric vehicles ended on September 30, 2025, and the credit for residential solar power expired at the end of 2025. For wind and solar, major credits will no longer be available for projects that start construction after July 4, 2026, unless they are operational by the end of 2027. The assessment is that even if the Democrats take the House, they can protect the remaining credits, but they cannot revive those that have been lost.

GreenBee’s storage power station business earns revenue in the Japanese electricity market (JEPX and the supply-demand adjustment market). US policy does not directly change the sales of Japanese storage power stations. In other words, this theme is not backed by earnings, but is aimed at capital movements driven by speculation.

With that said, the reason I am paying attention to GreenBee is that the earnings figures are already in place before the speculation enters. I believe that stocks that can be explained by their performance, such as a company that posted record profits in the first half, has over 500,000 subscribers, and has a PER of only 13.81x, are more likely to have their stock prices supported even after the theme-based buying has run its course.

The election result is just one trigger that moves stock prices. I recommend calmly confirming how the price movements of renewable energy-related stocks change after the results are out.

Stock price and investment indicators

The closing price on November 2, 2026, was 1,210 yen (Yahoo! Finance display. +20 yen, +1.68% from the previous day).

This is the screen for the list of disclosure information on the IR official website. Earnings summaries, earnings presentation materials, timely disclosures, and earnings videos are lined up in chronological order.

• PER (Company forecast, consolidated): 13.81x

• PBR (Actual/Consolidated): 2.03x

• Market Capitalization: 2,842 million yen

• Year-to-date High: 1,548 yen (January 23, 2026)

• Year-to-date Low: 850 yen (June 16, 2026)

• Margin Buying Balance: 294,000 shares (as of October 30, 2026)

The closing price is approximately 42% higher than the year-to-date low and about 22% lower than the high. There is no dividend (the forecast for the fiscal year ending December 2026 is also 0 yen), and shareholder returns are conducted through share buybacks.

The next earnings announcement is scheduled for November 12, 2026, according to Yahoo! Finance. With the third-quarter figures, we can confirm whether the progress toward the full-year forecast will continue to accumulate.

Points to check

• Ramp-up of the GX Service business: Sales in the first half were 5 million yen, and approximately 107 million yen is needed in the second half to reach the full-year plan of 112 million yen. The focus is on whether revenue from power storage stations will accumulate as planned.

• Revenue decline in the Technology Licensing business: Shipments of products equipped with 4K/8K premium content playback players are decreasing, and the full-year plan is a 21.6% decrease compared to the previous year. The first half was 284 million yen, which was almost the same level as the same period last year.

• Accumulation of recurring revenue: Monthly recurring revenue is 139% compared to December 2025, and there is still a gap to reach the year-end KPI target of 160%. The company evaluates the current progress as “better than expected.”

• Liquidity: The market capitalization is small, and there is still a margin buying balance. In phases with thin trading, price movements will be significant.

• Sustainability of theme-based buying: Market movements triggered by elections may fade in the short term.

Summary

• In the first half, sales were 640 million yen (up 56.7%), operating profit was 125 million yen (up 97.6%), and interim net profit was 128 million yen (up 93.9%), with net profit being the highest since the company’s founding.

• Sales in the DX Service business were approximately three times that of the same period last year. The number of paid subscribers reached 503,000.

• Progress toward the full-year forecast is 60.1% for operating profit and 70.2% for net profit. The company’s forecast PER is 13.81x.

• In the GX Service business, grid-scale power storage stations have entered full-scale operation. Accumulating sales in the second half is the challenge.

• If the Democratic Party gains an advantage in the US midterm elections, theme-based buying related to renewable energy may extend to domestic small-cap stocks. However, this does not mean that tax credits will return, and it remains in the realm of speculation.

My rating is bullish. The content of the earnings report has a strength that can be explained even without relying on theme-based buying. What I want to confirm is the third-quarter earnings on November 12, 2026, and the ramp-up of sales in the GX Service business.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific stock. Please make final investment decisions at your own discretion. Figures are based on information from earnings reports, earnings presentation materials, business strategy materials, and timely disclosures on the official IR website.