Here's How Much Traders Expect Tesla Stock to Move After Deliveries Data Due Wednesday
Tesla (TSLA) is expected to report production and deliveries figures for the second quarter on Wednesday morning, with investors anticipating a sizable move after a losing streak for the stock.
Shares dropped nearly 5% to just over $303 in recent trading, amid worries about an escalation in the feud between CEO Elon Musk and President Donald Trump over the president’s signature “One Big Beautiful Bill.”
Current options pricing suggests traders see shares moving about another 5% in either direction by the end of the week following the data’s release. That would leave the stock near $318 at the high end, and just below $290 at the low end by the end of Thursday’s session, with markets closed on Friday for Independence Day.
After last quarter’s deliveries disappointed, shares sank shortly after the data was released, but ended the day up 5%. Still, they tumbled in the following days as markets were battered by President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement. After the release of delivery figures in January and last October, Tesla shares fell 6% and 3.4%, respectively.
The EV maker’s stock rallied to a record high in December following Trump’s election win, but have lost about one-quarter of their value in 2025 so far as Musk’s political activities made Tesla the subject of protests and sales tumbled in key markets. Shares rebounded as Musk left the administration and Tesla recently launched its robotaxi service, but stumbled again as Musk and Trump traded barbs on social media.
Tomorrow, Tesla is expected to report a 10% year-over-year drop in quarterly deliveries to about 394,000 vehicles, and production of 434,200. Analysts from JPMorgan, William Blair, and Deutsche Bank warned clients they expect Tesla could miss delivery estimates as demand remains weak and competition grows.
JPMorgan analysts wrote they “see material risk to the outlook for full year deliveries also, given that consensus requires a sharp pivot from underperformance to outperformance of expected seasonal pattern despite the likely significant near-term curtailment of EV subsidies.”
The EV maker’s stock has divided analysts, with 10 of those surveyed by Visible Alpha issuing “buy” or equivalent ratings, with four “hold” and four “sell” ratings. Their average price target near $306 would suggest less than 1% upside from Tuesday’s intraday level.