Here’s Why Stellar’s October History Fuels Bullish Bets on XLM

Stellar (XLM) has surged back into the spotlight after a strong October rebound, sparking renewed optimism from traders and analysts alike. Historical performance data, recent technical breakouts, and bold forecasts are shaping bullish sentiment. However, resistance walls and weak momentum indicators remind investors to tread carefully.

In this article, we’ll explore how Stellar October history influences market confidence, what technical levels traders are watching, and the risks that could derail XLM’s rally.

Stellar October History and Market Sentiment

October has long been considered a “green month” for cryptocurrencies, and Stellar appears to be benefitting from this seasonal trend. Data from Lookonchain reveals that the overall crypto market has recorded positive October returns in 10 of the past 12 years. Only 2014 and 2018 saw negative performances, making this month one of the most reliable for bullish bets.

For Stellar, this statistical edge is more than a psychological boost. Traders increasingly look to historical patterns as a guide for positioning, and the optimism surrounding October has translated into renewed inflows. XLM jumped 10% to $0.4011 in just 24 hours, accompanied by a 130% spike in trading volume.

This aligns with a broader pattern across the market — investors expect October to deliver gains, and Stellar’s price action suggests it could follow through once again in 2025.

Breaking Out of a Falling Wedge

A key reason behind Stellar’s latest price surge is its technical breakout. XLM recently exited a falling wedge pattern on the daily chart, a setup often seen as bullish. According to analysts, a successful retest of this breakout could pave the way for a rally of 60% to 70%.

At press time, Stellar was trading near $0.4001, with short-term resistance looming at $0.4090. If bulls manage to clear this barrier, the next significant target lies at $0.50 — a level many experts believe could act as a magnet for price action.

Analyst Predictions and Bullish Targets

The Stellar October history narrative has been amplified by expert commentary. Popular traders on X (formerly Twitter) have shared projections ranging between $0.50 and $0.56 for XLM in the mid-term.

One analyst emphasized that $0.50 is the next psychological level, while another pointed out that a break above the $0.445 sell wall could open the door to $0.56. AltCryptoTalk, a widely followed account, predicted a potential 70% upside if momentum continues to build.

Such bold predictions often fuel retail enthusiasm, creating a self-reinforcing cycle where optimism drives inflows, which then support price gains.

Resistance Levels That Could Stall the Rally

Despite the bullish outlook, Stellar faces key hurdles. Immediate resistance sits at $0.4090, followed by heavier sell walls near $0.445. Breaking through these levels won’t be easy, as order book data shows large clusters of sell orders that could absorb buying pressure.

Support is stronger near $0.3809, according to liquidation data from CoinGlass. If Stellar fails to maintain momentum, a retracement toward this level remains possible.

In the event of a breakout, $0.5150 emerges as the next critical upside target. However, failure to clear $0.4150 on a daily close may leave the rally vulnerable to a pullback.

Indicators Suggest Caution

While October’s historical trend favors bulls, indicators advise caution. The Supertrend indicator continues to flash red above current price levels, signaling ongoing bearish pressure.

Moreover, the Average Directional Index (ADX) stands at 18, well below the 25 threshold that typically marks a strong trend. This suggests Stellar’s rally, while promising, has not yet gained full momentum.

Traders may interpret this as a sign that the move is driven more by sentiment and seasonal optimism rather than sustained technical strength.

XLM Liquidation Map Shows Market Bias

According to CoinGlass, liquidation data reveals $8.62 million in long positions built near the $0.3809 support zone, compared to $2.68 million in shorts. This imbalance highlights a bullish market bias, with traders favoring continuation over correction.

At the same time, the upper liquidation level at $0.4129 represents an important pivot. A move above this level could trigger a cascade of liquidations, potentially fueling the next leg upward.

The Bigger Picture: Stellar’s Role in the Crypto Market

Beyond short-term technicals, Stellar’s October momentum feeds into a broader narrative about its role in the digital asset ecosystem. As a blockchain designed for cross-border payments and tokenized asset transfers, Stellar continues to carve a niche distinct from competitors like Ripple’s XRP.

Institutional adoption, partnerships with fintech firms, and its focus on real-world use cases have made XLM an attractive asset for long-term holders. The October breakout, combined with historical trends, provides a timely confidence boost for this narrative.

Final Thoughts: Will Stellar’s October History Repeat Itself?

Stellar’s October performance is off to a promising start, with a double-digit surge in price and bullish forecasts pointing toward $0.50 and beyond. Historical data supports the case for continued gains, making Stellar October history a powerful narrative in the current rally.

However, traders must balance optimism with caution. Resistance at $0.4090 and $0.445, weak ADX readings, and bearish Supertrend signals suggest the path higher won’t be straightforward.

If Stellar manages to overcome these barriers, October could once again prove to be a launchpad for significant XLM gains. But as always in crypto, volatility is the only certainty.

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