How a Trade War With Brazil Could Brew Trouble for U.S. Coffee Consumers

How a Trade War With Brazil Could Brew Trouble for U.S. Coffee Consumers originally appeared on Parade.

U.S. coffee drinkers may face some uncertainty in the months ahead, as the Trump administration considers a 50-percent tariff on imports—an action that could drive up coffee prices nationwide.

As the largest supplier of coffee to the U.S., Brazil plays a critical role in the market—so if tariffs discourage imports, American buyers will have fewer low-cost alternatives to choose from. And with limited supply, prices aren’t likely to drop anywhere else either.

In light of the potential tariffs on Brazilian coffee imports, growers there will also be pushed to find new buyers, with some already turning to European markets. And while coffee is grown in the U.S., domestic consumption far outpaces what our own crops can supply.

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“The U.S. will buy coffee from someone else — Colombia, Honduras, Peru, Vietnam — but not at Brazil’s volume or price,” Senior Coffee Broker Michael Nugent, owner of MJ Nugent & Co., said in a conversation with Reuters.

Earlier this year, Trump floated a 10-percent tariff on Brazilian imports—a relatively low rate compared to other tariffs being considered at the time. But the new 50-percent proposal is a sharp escalation, reportedly in response to the prosecution of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro for his alleged attempt to overturn the 2022 election.

“The way that Brazil has treated former President Bolsonaro, a Highly Respected Leader throughout the World during his Term, including by the United States, is an international disgrace… This Trial should not be taking place. It is a Witch Hunt that should end IMMEDIATELY!”

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According to Trump, the increased tariffs are a response to what he called “Brazil’s insidious attacks on Free Elections.” The 50-percent rate is set to take effect on August 1, though it’s still unclear which imports will be exempt. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has mentioned that some fruits and spices could be excluded—leaving the door open, at least technically, for coffee to be spared.

And on the consumer level, coffee prices have already been spiking in recent years. Supply issues caused by heat and drought have made it harder to keep up with demand—plus there’s the usual suspect: inflation. Businesses are spending more on supplies, which leads to higher menu prices and, ultimately, disappointed customers.

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How a Trade War With Brazil Could Brew Trouble for U.S. Coffee Consumers first appeared on Parade on Jul 14, 2025

This story was originally reported by Parade on Jul 14, 2025, where it first appeared.