How likely is Invest 94L to strengthen? Here are the latest spaghetti models

The National Hurricane Center is tracking a tropical disturbance currently referred to as Invest 94L as it moves westward through the Atlantic toward the Caribbean.

The chance that Invest 94L becomes a tropical depression was lowered slightly on Monday afternoon, according to the NHC’s latest tropical weather outlook. The low pressure area associated with the tropical wave became less organized throughout the day.

Dry air from Saharan dust plumes and greater wind shear in the portion of the Caribbean where Invest 94L is headed will limit any tropical development. Portions of the Leeward and Windward islands are forecast to see “drenching downpours and gusty squalls” around midweek, regardless of development.

Here are the latest spaghetti models and forecast info for Invest 94L

Latest Invest 94L updates

As of 2 p.m., satellite-derived wind data indicated that Invest 94L had become more disorganized compared to Tuesday morning. The NHC reduced the chance of tropical development to 10%.

The tropical wave of low pressure remains one of the more robust seen since the start of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, but its window of opportunity to develop is dwindling fast.

Over the next couple of days, Invest 94L will move into a portion of the Caribbean experiencing greater wind shear and drier air, which will severely limit any strengthening.

The disturbance will still be a rainmaker, however.

“As this tropical wave, with its pulse of showers and thunderstorms, drifts westward, it will bring an uptick in drenching downpours and gusty squalls through portions of the Leeward and Windward islands at midweek,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.

Enough rain may fall to lead to flash flooding and mudslides, and the squalls may pose dangers to small craft, according to AccuWeather.

Will Florida see any impact from Invest 94L?

Invest 94L spaghetti models show the tropical wave moving westward toward Central America. That data and the low chances of development mean Florida doesn’t need to worry about any direct impact at the moment.

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. 

What is the next named storm?

Tropical Storm Dexter will be the next named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.

This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: Invest 94L latest spaghetti models and forecast info