How Low Can IONQ Stock Go?

IonQ (NYSE:IONQ) stock is down 6.6% in a day in reaction to the company’s announcement of a substantial $2 billion equity offering.

The news, released on Tuesday, October 14, detailed the sale of millions of new common shares and associated warrants. Investors reacted negatively because such a large issuance of new stock significantly dilutes the value of existing shares by increasing the total number of shares available on the market.

While history suggests price dips recover, there is risk – specific to profitability and downturn resilience. Consider the following data:

• Size: IonQ is a $18 Bil company with $52 Mil in revenue, currently trading at $72.41.
• Fundamentals: Last 12-month revenue growth of 67.8% and operating margin of -700.6%.
• Liquidity: Has no debt and a Cash to Assets ratio of 0.4
• Valuation: IonQ stock is currently trading at a P/S multiple of 347
• Has returned (median) 162% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See IONQ Dip Buy Analysis.

It’s important to recognize that traditional financial numbers may not fully reflect IonQ’s value, as it is a quantum computing company still largely in the research stage with commercial application years away. Instead, investors are primarily betting on the immense, long-term future potential of quantum technology when investing in IONQ stock.

While we like to buy dips if the fundamentals check out – for IONQ, see Buy or Sell IONQ Stock – we are wary of falling knives. Specifically, it is worth trying to answer if things get really bad, and IONQ drops another 20-30% to $51 levels, will we be able to hold on to the stock? What is the worst-case scenario? We call it downturn resilience. Turns out, the stock has fared much worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and (b) how quickly it recovered.

IONQ stock has fallen meaningfully recently, and we currently find it unattractive. This may feel like a caution, and there is a significant risk in relying on a single stock. However, there is a huge value to a broader diversified approach we take with the Trefis High Quality Portfolio. Trefis works with Empirical Asset Management – a Boston area wealth manager – whose asset allocation strategies yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%. Empirical has incorporated the Trefis HQ Portfolio in this asset allocation framework to provide clients better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.

Below are the details, but before that, as a quick background: IONQ provides general-purpose quantum computing systems accessible via major cloud platforms like AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Marketplace.

2022 Inflation Shock

• IONQ stock fell 90.0% from a high of $31.00 on 17 November 2021 to $3.10 on 27 December 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 21 November 2024
• Since then, the stock increased to a high of $82.09 on 13 October 2025 , and currently trades at $72.41

Worried that IONQ could fall much more? You could take a look at the Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio, which has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 benchmark indices) to produce strong returns for investors. Why is that? The quarterly rebalanced mix of large-, mid-, and small-cap RV Portfolio stocks provided a responsive way to make the most of upbeat market conditions while limiting losses when markets head south, as detailed in RV Portfolio performance metrics.