How To Trade Apple's Big 'October Surprise'

On Wednesday, Apple Inc. AAPL wrapped its annual fall event. 

Apple called this year’s event the “Awe-Dropping” and the name fits. The company revealed its slimmest iPhone ever—the iPhone 17 Air. This phone clocked in at just 5.6mm thick, forged from what Apple claims is “spacecraft titanium.” Sleek and powerful, with a price tag of $999, it’s clearly aimed at the high-end market.

And while the headlines have been all about this new ultra-thin iPhone, as well as game-changing new AirPods, there’s something much bigger they’re not talking about. 

You see, a powerful seasonal trend in Apple’s stock is about to trigger—and it could be one of the most reliable, profit-rich setups we’ll see all year.

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Two Things Apple Didn’t Say At The Awe-Dropping Event

Apple also showcased the: 

• The Standard iPhone 17 
• The iPhone 17 Pro 
• And the Pro Max, which I swear is almost big enough to hang from a shoulder strap 

Every model features upgraded chips, enhanced cameras, and longer battery life, exactly what you’d expect from an annual refresh.

But it was the AirPods 3 that really grabbed my attention.

These things come packed with active noise cancellation, foam-infused tips for a better fit, heart rate tracking, and even live language translation. That’s right, simply tap your AirPods and get real-time translations into your preferred language.

They also unveiled updates to the Apple Watch line, which include faster charging and always-on displays.

But for all the hardware bells and whistles, there were two glaring omissions:

1. No mention of AI. Zero. Zilch. 
2. No foldable iPhone, despite growing demand 

That silence spoke volumes. And so did the market’s reaction.

The Real Opportunity Hidden In The Post-Event Drop

By the end of the day, AAPL shares were down about 1.6%. That’s nothing catastrophic, sure—but it was a “sell the news” type of response.

Now, this is common. Traders often buy the rumor and sell the news once the event is official. And historically, AAPL tends to see this kind of dip after major product launches. In fact, if you zoom out, the stock is already down 6% year to date. That’s way behind its Big Tech buddies. 

But don’t be fooled by the short-term dip. What’s happening right now is setting the stage for something much bigger.

While Apple didn’t wow the crowd with any earth-shattering AI breakthroughs, this event still signals a strong long-term direction for the company. And that matters for traders who know what to look for.

Here’s what stood out to me:

1. Design Innovation

The ultra-thin titanium body on the iPhone 17 Air shows Apple still cares deeply about design leadership. That kind of visual keeps Apple firmly at the top. 

2. Health and Wearables

With live language translation and heart rate tracking baked into their AirPods and watches, Apple is pushing hard into health and fitness. That’s not just a product play—it strengthens the entire brand. 

3. Ecosystem Strength

Each new product Apple releases reinforces its ecosystem, tying users deeper into iCloud, Apple Music, Fitness+, and beyond. That means recurring revenue, which Wall Street loves.

4. Strategic Investments

Apple CEO, Tim Cook, recently made a $500 billion commitment to U.S. manufacturing, AI, and R&D. That’s a bold, long-term bet on domestic growth and future-proofing its supply chain.

They’re even tightening control over their chips and connectivity, creating stronger margins and greater control over their future.

So, how do you trade this?

You trade the pattern. And history tells us that AAPL begins a 50-day price rally on Friday, October 2. This isn’t some anomaly in the stock either. This pattern has happened:

• In 9 of the last 10 years
• With an average gain of 7%
• All within 50 trading days

And that takes us right into the holiday season, where Apple tends to benefit from strong consumer demand and year-end excitement.

Even in 2018, the one year the pattern didn’t hold, the entire market sold off, not just Apple. So, the odds are heavily in favor of a seasonal bounce and some serious profit potential.

Now, no investment is without risk—so you’ll want to consult your financial professional. But if you’re looking to reduce cost and manage that risk, options are a good way to go here. They let you “rent the stock” (100 shares per contract) for a fraction of the price of buying shares outright. 

Just remember:

• Choose the right strike price
• Time your expiration to match the seasonal window

And structure your trade to maximize profit potential if the pattern holds

Editorial content from our expert contributors is intended to be information for the general public and not individualized investment advice. Editors/contributors are presenting their individual opinions and strategies, which are neither expressly nor impliedly approved or endorsed by Benzinga.

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