Hurricane center tracking Tropical Storm Humberto, Invest 94L. Sarasota, Bradenton in path?

Tropical Storm Humberto is forecast to strengthen and become a hurricane in a day or so and a major hurricane over the weekend, the National Hurricane Center reported in its latest Sept. 25 update. Invest 94L, also in the Atlantic, is expected to become a tropical depression soon.

Hurricane Gabrielle is moving east toward Europe. Swells from Gabrielle are affecting the U.S East Coast, including Florida, with life-threatening surf and rip currents.

At 11 a.m., Tropical Storm Humberto was located several hundred miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. Significant strengthening is forecast, and Humberto may become a major hurricane, with winds of at least 111 mph, by early next week as it moves to the southwest of Bermuda.

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Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in association with Invest 94L, located near Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands.. The system is expected to become a tropical depression of the central and northwest Bahamas late Friday or over the weekend.

Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system, as heavy rains and gusty winds are likely across that region regardless of development.

The next named storm of the 2025 hurricane season will be Imelda.

Humberto and Invest 94L currently pose no direct threat to Florida and the U.S. However, the two systems could interact in what’s known as the Fujiwhara effect, making predictions difficult.

As for Sarasota-Manatee’s current weather outlook, daily chances of showers and thunderstorms, along with temperatures in the high 80s and low 90s are in the forecast through the weekend, according to the National Weather Service.

Sarasota storm tracker: Where are Tropical Storm Humberto and Invest 94L going?

Where is Tropical Storm Humberto?

• Location: 465 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands

• Maximum sustained winds: 50 mph

• Movement: northwest at 8 mph

• Pressure: 1004 mb

At 11 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 56.8 West.

Humberto is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph. A slow west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast, and Humberto is expected to become a hurricane in a day or so and a major hurricane this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb.

Maximum winds forecast:

• 11 a.m.: 50 mph

• 12 hours: 60 mph

• 24 hours: 65 mph

• 36 hours: 75 mph

• 48 hours: 85 mph

• 60 hours: 105 mph

• 72 hours: 120 mph

• 96 hours: 120 mph

• 120 hours: 110 mph

Tropical Storm Humberto Spaghetti models

Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

Where is Invest 94L, also known as AL94?

Invest 94L, which the National Hurricane Center calls AL94, is a tropical wave bringing showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds across portions of the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

It’s expected to become a tropical depression near the central or northwest Bahamas in a couple of days, the National Hurricane Center said.

Forecasters said residents in the southeastern United States should monitor the the system for potential impacts.

Invest 94L spaghetti models

Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

Will Tropical Storm Humberto or Invest 94L impact Florida?

The answer to that question is keeping forecasters guessing since Humberto and Invest 94L could interact with each other in what’s known as the Fujiwhara effect.

➤ From Hurricane Hell Week to twin tropical trouble? Tricky forecast for Humberto, 94L

“If Humberto is stronger than 94L, as seems likely, by late in the weekend Humberto could start to exert a pull east on a 94L, then shear out the smaller and weaker system as it gets caught in Humberto’s outer circulation,” said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, who works with the USA TODAY Network.

“Given my justified skepticism towards 94L, I’m doubtful of any significant impacts on the Southeast coast from either system over the next 5-7 days, so likely not.

“However, a Hurricane Heck Week might be ahead, as the chaotic interaction of two storms — Humberto and 94L — or the chance of 94L lingering could leave the outside possibility of some eventual impact to Florida or the Southeast on the table.”

Seas, surf and increasing rip currents from Tropical Storm Humberto will build and impact beaches across the Bahamas, Bermuda and the East Coast starting this weekend and perhaps lasting through the middle of next week, helped by Invest 94L, AccuWeather said.

“While there is some potential that Humberto to the east may hinder the full development of the tropical wave (Invest 94L) farther west, both could evolve into hurricanes. Since the tropical wave farther west may be close to or could reach the U.S. coast, it could bring significant impacts in terms of wind, rain and surf.”

Where is Hurricane Gabrielle now?

Hurricane Gabrielle is in the central Atlantic and moving fast — at 32 mph — toward the Azores, where a hurricane warning is in effect, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

Gabrielle is forecast to be at hurricane strength when it passes through the Azores west of Portugal today, Sept. 25, and into Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph and extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles.

Gabrielle may be far from the U.S. but indirect impacts from the hurricane continue to be felt. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda, the northeastern coast of the U.S., and Atlantic Canada today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, the Hurricane Center said.

What is the Fujiwhara effect?

When two storms or hurricanes spinning in the same direction pass close enough to each other, they begin an intense dance around their common center known as the Fujiwhara effect, the National Weather Service said.

➤ Hurricane forecasters watch for rare, chaotic Fujiwhara effect

Storms involved in the Fujiwhara effect are rotating around one another as if they had locked arms and were square dancing. Rather than each storm spinning about the other, they are actually moving about a central point between them, as if both were tied to the same post and each swung around it separately of the other.

According to Weather.com, the stronger storm often dominates, tugging the weaker one into its circulation, but in rare cases, two storms of similar strength can combine, creating a single, more powerful storm

Overview: What’s happening in the tropics?

The National Hurricane Center is tracking three systems in the Atlantic basin: Hurricane Gabrielle, Tropical Storm Humberto and Invest 94L.

Invest 94L: A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds across portions of the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. An area of low pressure is expected to form along the wave tonight or early Friday when it moves near the southeast Bahamas.

This low is expected to become a tropical depression when it is in the vicinity of the central and northwest Bahamas in a couple of days.

Residents in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system as heavy rains and gusty winds are likely across that region regardless of development.

Residents along the coast of the southeastern United States should also monitor the progress of this system.

• Formation chance through 48 hours: high, 70 percent.

• Formation chance through 7 days: high, 90 percent.

Hurricane Gabrielle: Gabrielle in the central Atlantic is expected to pass near or over the Azores late today into early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph. Hurricane warnings are in effect for all the Azores. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda, the northeastern coast of the U.S., and Atlantic Canada today.

Tropical Storm Humberto: Humberto, located about 480 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, is expected to strengthen into a hurricane over the weekend and become a major hurricane by early next week.

Current weather watches and warnings issued in Naples, Marco Island, Collier County, Florida

Excessive rainfall forecast across Naples, Collier County, Florida

What do the colored, hatched areas on the NOAA map mean?

The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.

The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high.

The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.

“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.

Are any hurricanes coming to Florida?

Not at this time, but forecasters warn there is a lot of uncertainty related to Tropical Storm Humberto and Invest 94L.

➤ Excessive rainfall forecast

Officials encourage residents to monitor the tropics and to be prepared.

Forecasters urge all residents to keep an eye on the tropics and to always be prepared

Officials regularly encourage Florida residents to prepare for storms before a hurricane is approaching, while shelves are fully stocked and you aren’t battling crowds all rushing to the store at the same time.

“It only takes one storm to make it an impactful year for your community,” the National Hurricane Center Miami posted on X.

➤ See list of emergency supplies you can now buy tax free

On Aug. 1, specific hurricane supplies became permanently tax-free in Florida, ranging from batteries to generators.

➤ Don’t have a hurricane supply kit? From the basics to the extras, here’s what you need

Here are some of the basics you should have:

• Non-perishable food

• Two-week supply of medications

• Flashlight

• A go-bag with essential supplies in case you need to leave quickly

• Portable cellphone chargers

• Battery-operated radio

• List of emergency phone numbers, including those for family members

• Copy of your insurance policy

Weather radar for Bradenton, Sarasota and Manatee County, Florida

Current weather watches and warnings issued in Bradenton, Sarasota and Manatee County, Florida

Excessive rainfall forecast across Bradenton, Sarasota and Manatee County, Florida

When does hurricane season end?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.

The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.

When is the peak of hurricane season?

The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

Hurricane names for 2025 season

Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them. The first hurricane of the season typically forms Aug. 11.

• Andrea  (June 20)

• Barry  (June 29)

• Chantal (July 5)

• Dexter: (Aug. 3)

• Erin: (Aug. 11; hurricane Aug. 15; major hurricane Aug. 16)

• Fernand: (Aug. 23)

• Gabrielle: (Sept. 17; hurricane Sept. 21; major hurricane Sept. 22)

• Humberto: (Sept. 24)

• Imelda: ee-MEHL-dah

• Jerry: JEHR-ee

• Karen: KAIR-ren

• Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh

• Melissa: meh-LIH-suh

• Nestor: NES-tor

• Olga: OAL-guh

• Pablo: PAHB-lo

• Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh

• Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en

• Tanya: TAHN-yuh

• Wendy: WEN-dee

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This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: Tropical Storm Humberto, Invest 94L spaghetti models. Sarasota impact?