Hurricane Hunters to check Invest 91L in Caribbean for possible tropical development
MIAMI – A disturbance moving over the Bay of Campeche on the eastern coast of Central America has been designated Invest 91L on Friday afternoon.
An “invest” is a naming convention used by the National Hurricane Center to identify areas they are investigating for possible development into a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next seven days. The designation allows the agency to run specialized computer forecast models to track the area’s potential storm development.
While the odds of Invest 91L developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm remain low so far, forecasters expect the area of showers and thunderstorms to bring beneficial rainfall to parts of drought-stricken Mexico.
The Bay of Campeche is known for rapid spin-ups of tropical cyclones due to warm sea surface temperatures and favorable terrain, but several factors are working against significant development in this case.
“We’ll be watching this, and I think the timeline here it really is short,” said FOX Weather Meteorologist Jane Minar. “It’s probably not going to be 7 days from now. We’re really looking through maybe about Monday where we could maybe see a circulation come together.”
Forecast models and the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation suggest that environmental conditions will likely inhibit tropical cyclone formation.
Even if the system were to organize, any impacts would remain well south of the U.S.–Mexico border, near Tampico, Mexico, which is roughly 300 miles south of the Lone Star State.
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According to NOAA, Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly several reconnaissance flights into the area to watch over the weekend to understand the strength of the disturbance and better understand how powerful the system could become.
So far, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually quiet, with the basin’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or what is commonly referred to as ACE, sitting at a meager 0.2 units.
ACE is a metric used by forecasters to quantify the strength and duration of tropical cyclones, with greater values indicating stronger, longer-lasting systems.
According to data compiled by Colorado State University, the 2025 ACE value is more than 90% below average for the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America.
Several factors have contributed to the suppressed activity in the Atlantic basin, including above-normal surface pressures, increased atmospheric stability and a lack of moisture over the tropics.
Adding to the suppression is the heightened amount of tropical activity in the eastern Pacific, which is running close to 30% above normal.
The string of recent developments, including the potential future formation of Tropical Storm Flossie, are believed to be contributing to a more hostile upper-level environment over parts of the Gulf and Caribbean.
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The next name on the Atlantic season list is Barry, but as of now, there are no indications that a named storm will form in the immediate future.
The climatological peak of hurricane season occurs in mid-September, with tropical cyclone formation continuing into early November.
Original article source: Hurricane Hunters to check Invest 91L in Caribbean for possible tropical development