I.M.F. Raises U.S. Economic Forecast as Other Regions Lag

The U.S. economy is on track to grow faster this year than previously expected, the International Monetary Fund said on Friday, citing strength in the labor market and an acceleration in investment.

The I.M.F. projects 2.7 percent U.S. economic growth in 2025 in its latest World Economic Outlook report, up from an estimate of 2.2 percent. That stands in stark contrast to reduced growth projections for the euro area, which the fund attributed in large part to weakness in the manufacturing sector and heightened political uncertainty.

“The big story is the divergence between the U.S. and the rest of the world,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the I.M.F.’s chief economist, said on a call with reporters this week. “We have stronger potential output growth in the U.S. compared to prepandemic, and we have weaker potential growth in other areas, like the euro area or China.”

New economic forecasts released by the fund on Friday build on its analysis in October, which showed that concerns about a postpandemic global contraction appear to have been averted, even though growth remains sluggish in many countries. Economists at the I.M.F. expect global output to grow 3.3 percent this year and next, according to the updated report, slightly above the fund’s previous projections.

But newly elected governments around the world are elevating economic policy uncertainty, posing risks that could alter the trajectory of the global economy in the coming months, the I.M.F. cautioned.

Those wild cards are particularly acute in the United States, where the incoming Trump administration’s proposed tax cuts, deregulation, tariffs and curbs on immigration could ignite inflation. All of these proposals have a common element, Mr. Gourinchas said: They are poised to increase price pressures.