INTERVIEW – US ‘on its own can’t cause global trade war’: Int'l Chamber of Commerce chief
DUBAI
The US by itself “can’t cause a global trade war” through President Donald Trump’s tariffs, John Denton, the secretary-general of the International Chamber of Commerce, told Anadolu.
“It can only cause a global trade war depending on how others respond,” said Denton, while attending the World Governments Summit 2025 in Dubai.
Denton said there has already been volatility in the global economy and trade but the “unorthodox” economic approach has recently increased the volatility.
While Trump wishes to continue the US economy’s growth through his policies, the chamber “finds it harder to fully understand … how tariffs will help on fentanyl — and nobody supports (the) illicit importation of such a horrible drug,” he said.
“We also understand that every country has the right to be in control of migration, so controlling illegal immigration is really important, but (is) a tariff the best way of dealing with that,” he noted, and said “that’s causing an additional level of volatility that people have got quite used to.”
Denton also said the details of how tariffs will be applied and the targeted countries’ reactions will be decisive in this process.
“We are not in a 1930s situation where with the intervention of protectionist policies in the US, because of the dominance of the US in the global economy and its importance in trade flows, you actually saw basically the harbinger of the Great Depression.
“We’re not there yet because the nature of the global economy is different, the US accounts for now — compared to the 1930s — about 13% of global trade, so, on its own, it can’t cause a global trade war,” he noted.
“One of the things I think that drove Canada to engage directly with President Trump, and also (Mexican) President (Claudia) Sheinbaum to engage directly with President Trump, is a recognition that, with the unorthodoxy we’re seeing, this is not rules-based approach, this is actually about power, it’s about supremacy which can only be dealt with at a leader level that requires a level of agility,” Denton added.
Gaining upper hand in economic competition with China ‘will not be one through tariffs’
Denton stated that the US tariffs against China are also linked to fentanyl but for the US to gain the upper hand in economic growth “will be one not through tariffs” but “through superiority and innovation, and the ability to actually deliver the innovation, creating a very productive economic model and economic growth pattern.”
He mentioned that while Trump’s goal to bring back production to the US is valid, it could damage the economy and give rise to inflationary pressures due to the disruption of supply chains.
Trump has recently imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports for all countries, and the consequences of the reactions to these tariffs need to be considered, Denton stressed.
“We understand there will be a need for a political response, (but) there are other ways of dealing with this issue; clearly, we need to have a recognition of a power-based play, therefore, there needs to be direct leader-to-leader discussions,” he added.
‘Uncompetitiveness’ is EU’s biggest challenge
Denton also said “uncompetitiveness” is the EU’s biggest challenge, “endorsed by the (2024) Draghi report.”
Former European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi released a report on how the EU economy can maintain its competitiveness in the face of global developments.
The report said the EU needs to introduce a more coordinated industrial policy and increase investments and joint borrowing to be able to compete with the US and China, noting that the region’s competitiveness declined due to the pandemic, supply chain disruptions, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, and the rapid developments in technology.
Denton noted that the bloc can find the opportunity to “grapple with political economy issues, which (are) impeding their ability to become more competitive.”
He said another challenge for the EU in the face of tariffs is to “stay united.”
“An uncompetitive, fractured European Union is not good for the citizens and the economies of Europe, (and) it’s not good for the world, either.”
“There’s always the risk of fragmentation here, in the US, (which) may have varying degrees of challenges it will present to various members of the EU,” he added.
Türkiye’s private sector efforts can be ‘lesson’ for Canada
Denton stated that Ankara should not ignore the possible risks from US tariffs and “do what everyone else is doing” to be “well prepared and well organized,” as Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs apply at a global scale.
Stressing that Türkiye’s private sector has been innovative and strong, he said: “The Turkish private sector has proven to be remarkably innovative, when you look at some of the success stories from Türkiye in the construction industry (and the) services industry, as well.”
“Let’s not forget, whilst Türkiye’s export orientation is towards the European Union, look at the position of Türkiye in terms of the Middle East and elsewhere. … In the Middle East, there’s an amazing role for Türkiye,” he added.
“Türkiye is actually working quite hard to diversify its markets and that’s a very good strategy to ensure that it doesn’t become to one point dependent, which, I think, is the lesson for Canada.”