Invest AL97 is likely to become Tropical Storm Rafael next week

SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) – Sunday is unseasonably warm, again. Highs top off in the high 80s, but dew point could drop to the mid 60s for a little more comfortable feel. Monday is just as quiet, then clouds move in Tuesday as the storm in the tropics move north.

The disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea now have the designation called Invest AL97. With that come the first Spaghetti Model plots, which move the system to the northwest over Cuba to start the week. By Wednesday it continues north, offshore of the west coast of Florida and parallel to the coast. This is close enough to bring thunderstorms into Florida on Wednesday and Thursday. The majority of the models keep the storm at Tropical Storm strength (winds 39 to 73 mph). A few of the models take it to a Category 1 strength.

Late Wednesday the models have the storm as far north as the Tampa Bay area, still offshore. After that the models are in chaos. A few take it to the Big Bend area, others push it farther west toward the Louisiana coast by next weekend. As this storm continues to develop we should get more consensus in the models in the track and intensity of what is likely to become Rafael.

The track and intensity of this storm is still very subject to change as it gets better organized.

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