JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon makes key observation on US Economy. What we know so far

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon issued a fresh warning about the U.S. economy on Wednesday, cautioning that recent upbeat data may be obscuring more troubling developments beneath the surface. Speaking at the Morgan Stanley U.S. Financial Conference in New York, Dimon said there is a “chance real numbers will deteriorate soon,” referencing economic indicators such as employment and inflation that he expects to worsen in the coming months.

Dimon pointed to President Donald Trump‘s April 2 tariff announcement—dubbed “Liberation Day”—as a potential drag on growth. While consumer sentiment and the stock market have bounced back from the initial shock, Dimon warned these are not reliable measures of economic health. “You haven’t seen an effect yet other than in the sentiment,” he said, adding that the real impact of tariffs might emerge between July and October.

Although the latest inflation report showed prices rising by just 0.1 percent month-over-month in May, with a year-over-year increase of 2.4 percent, Dimon remained skeptical. He warned that both inflation and unemployment could edge higher in the near term, even if only slightly.

Fears of stagflation resurface

Dimon reiterated earlier warnings about the risk of stagflation, an economic condition marked by rising prices and slowing growth, which he believes could become a reality in the near future. “There’s a chance that we’ll have stagflation in the U.S.,” he said, urging policymakers and businesses to be prepared. Research from JPMorgan has supported this view, suggesting stagflation could begin to take hold as early as this summer. Dimon emphasised that tariffs won’t necessarily sink the U.S. economy but could contribute to significant disruptions.

His concerns echo a broader wave of caution from global institutions. The World Bank recently slashed its U.S. growth forecast for 2025 from 2.3 percent to 1.4 percent, citing the rise in trade barriers as a key factor. If the projection holds, the U.S. economy would grow at half the pace it did in 2024, when it expanded by 2.8 percent. As the head of the world’s largest bank, with $4 trillion in assets, Dimon’s remarks carry weight across Wall Street. His personal net worth is estimated at $2.5 billion, and his leadership at JPMorgan has made him one of the most influential voices in global finance.