June Fed Meeting: Live Updates and Commentary

S&P 500 nears record high ahead of the Fed meeting

Stocks closed higher Thursday, bringing the S&P 500 closer to record-high territory. The broad-market index settled at 6,045.26 on June 12, putting it less than 2 percentage points away from surpassing its all-time closing high of 6,144.15 from February 19.

The fact that we’re even talking about record highs for the stock market is fairly remarkable considering stocks were flirting with a new bear market back in April after President Trump’s aggressive retaliatory tariffs sparked a major sell-off.

Since April 8, the S&P 500 is up more than 21% and is now nearly 3% higher for the year to date.

“The return of cyclical leadership and broad participation since the April 8 low provides additional technical evidence of a sustainable recovery,” says Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial.

Turnquist says “bullish but not overbought momentum, relatively light investor positioning, and sanguine but not stretched investor sentiment” suggests that this rally has legs.

– Karee Venema

Trump, Vance pile up on Powell

President Trump turned his ire toward Jerome Powell again on Thursday, calling the Fed chair a “numbskull” for not cutting interest rates.

The president said the U.S. could save $600 billion a year if the FOMC lowered the federal funds rate by 2 percentage points, but they “can’t get this guy to do it.”

Trump added that he “may have to force something” if inflation keeps falling and the Fed remains on the sidelines.

This follows Wednesday’s comments from Vice President J.D. Vance, who wrote in a post on X that “the refusal by the Fed to cut rates is monetary malpractice.”

Throughout his tenure, Powell has been adamant about the Fed’s independence and told President Trump when they met in May that the central bank would make monetary policy decisions “based solely on careful, objective and non-political analysis.”

– Karee Venema

A “shadow” Fed chair?

Bloomberg reports President Donald Trump is considering Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent – amid his tariffs-and-trade war star ascension – to be the next Federal Reserve chair.

Jerome Powell, the current Fed chair, presumably will be in charge of things at 20th Street and Constitution Avenue in Washington, D.C., through May 15, 2026.

And yet the primary occupant at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue continues to do his very best to get Powell to cut interest rates.

Markets have been wary of President Trump’s attempts to compromise the independence of the central bank for evermore.

And Bessent, before he was even a nominee for a cabinet position, detailed for Barron’s a plan to work around Powell.

“You could do the earliest Fed nomination and create a shadow Fed chair,” Bessent said in an interview published October 9. “And based on the concept of forward guidance, no one is really going to care what Jerome Powell has to say anymore.”

Perhaps Bessent is the change Trump has been waiting for…

– David Dittman

Jobless claims hold steady

The Labor Department said Thursday that initial jobless claims held steady at 248,000 in the week ending June 7, higher than the 242,000 economists expected.

The four-week moving average rose by 5,000 to 240,250. “This is the highest level for this average since August 26, 2023 when it was 245,000,” according to the Labor Department.

Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica, says that while this report shows the labor market is softening, the data are not so clear-cut.

“While the Department of Labor tries to adjust the claims data for seasonal variations, that’s easier said than done,” Adams notes. “Initial and continued claims are up from the spring, but both rose from spring to summer in 2023 and 2024 as well.”

The difference between now and then, the economist explains, is that in 2025, folks who have lost their jobs are having a harder time finding a new one.

– Karee Venema

What is the FOMC meeting schedule?

The Federal Open Market Committee meets eight times a year, or about once every six weeks. The FOMC is required to meet at least four times a year and may convene additional meetings if necessary.

The convention of meeting eight times per year dates back to the market stresses of 1981.

FOMC meetings last two days and conclude with the committee releasing its policy decision at 2 pm Eastern time. The Fed chair then holds a press conference at 2:30 pm.

Pro tip: As closely scrutinized as the FOMC statement might be, market participants are usually even more keen on what the Federal Reserve chair has to say in the press conference.

Read more: When Is the Next Fed Meeting?

Wholesale prices rose less than expected in May

Wall Street continues to be met with encouraging inflation data, indicating that President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies have yet to impact price growth.

Ahead of Thursday’s open, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures what businesses are paying suppliers for goods, was up 0.1% month over month in May.

While this was quicker than the revised 0.2% decline seen in April, it was slower than the 0.2% rise economists expected.

Year over year, wholesale prices rose 2.6%, in line with expectations.

Core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, was up 0.1% on a monthly basis and 3.0% higher year over year.

Economists had called for core PPI to increase 0.3% and 3.1% monthly and yearly, respectively.

These soft back-to-back readings on inflation give “the Fed room to sit on their hands,” says Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management.

“As long as inflation isn’t increasing – or even better, is decreasing – the Fed can be patient and wait for more information on how the new tariffs and trade negotiations are going to impact the price stability part of their dual mandate later this year,” he adds.

– Karee Venema

Who gets to vote on Fed policy?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is the Federal Reserve’s policy-setting group, has 12 members, eight permanent and four who rotate each year.

The eight permanent voting committee members include the Fed chair and vice chair, the five Fed governors and the president of the New York Fed.

Four regional Fed presidents are rotated in each calendar year.

The 2025 FOMC voting committee consists of:

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell
• Vice Chair Philip Jefferson
• Fed Governor Michael Barr
• Fed Governor Michelle Bowman
• Fed Governor Lisa Cook
• Fed Governor Adriana Kugler
• Fed Governor Christopher Waller
• New York Fed President John Williams
• Boston Fed President Susan Collins
• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee
• St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem
• Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid

In 2026, the presidents from Cleveland, Philadelphia, Dallas and Minneapolis will rotate in as FOMC voting members, according to the Federal Reserve.

– Karee Venema

How long will we have to wait for a Fed rate cut?

The Federal Reserve is not going to change rates at its June 17-18 meeting next week. In fact, don’t expect the central bank to make any adjustments until maybe its October meeting.

The Fed wants to know how tariffs are affecting both inflation and the economy. Until the impact is clearer, the Fed will wait.

Yes, that raises the risk that the Fed will act too late, but it may be better to wait at the crosswalk than to look the wrong way crossing the street.

– David Payne

When is Jerome Powell’s term as Fed chair up?

Despite President Trump’s innuendos that he would like to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the Supreme Court has suggested that it would oppose such an action.

Indeed, Trump in April used his Truth Social platform to call for Powell’s termination, while an April 17 report in The Wall Street Journal discussed private meetings where the president expressed his desire to remove the Fed chair from his post.

Nevertheless, the question of whether or not Trump can fire Powell is seemingly moot given that his term as Fed chair is up in less than a year from now – on May 15, 2026.

It’s unlikely that those in Trump’s inner circle will encourage him to disrupt the status quo – and likely send stocks and bonds tumbling – when Powell has such a small amount of time left in his term.

For what it’s worth, Powell’s term as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve ends on January 31, 2028.

– Karee Venema

The labor market remains resilient

The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment – and both sides appear to be on solid footing at the moment.

Indeed, while the May Consumer Price Index signaled progress on the inflation front, the most recent jobs report showed a resilient labor market.

According to the Labor Department, the U.S. added 139,000 new jobs last month, more than economists expected. And while figures for March and April were revised down, the unemployment rate remained at a historically low 4.2%.

“It’s clear that the economy remains resilient, with the job market holding up well,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management.

The CIO added that the Fed “should be reluctant to cut rates because the full effects of tariffs haven’t impacted inflation numbers yet and the job market isn’t deteriorating enough to force their hand.”

– Karee Venema

President Trump’s tariff policies have yet to impact inflation

Inflation eased more than expected in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Headline CPI was up 0.1% month over month in May, slower than April’s 0.2% rise and the 0.2% increase economists expected.

The CPI was 2.4% higher year over year, slightly higher than the 2.3% increase seen the month prior and in line with economists’ projections.

Shelter was the “primary factor” for the increase in headline CPI, according to BLS, up 0.3% on the month. Energy costs, meanwhile, were down 1% in May as gas prices declined.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is seen as a better measure of underlying inflation trends, was up 0.1% from April to May and 2.8% year over year. Economists expected 0.3% and 2.9% increases, respectively.

The May CPI report, alongside news that the U.S. and China have reached a trade deal, is doing little to move the needle on rate-cut expectations.

According to CME FedWatch, futures traders are pricing in a 99.9% chance the central bank will hold rates steady, with the first quarter-point rate cut not expected until September.

– Karee Venema