Legendary billionaire drops startling take on stock market
The stock market continues on a wave of optimism that just doesn’t seem to quit.
The S&P 500 continues to notch new highs, as investors price in fresh Fed cuts, while cash once parked on the sidelines is circling back into risk. On top of that, with inflation easing, the tone at this point feels more about late-cycle frenzy than steady expansion.
Big names have quietly been inching their targets higher, suggesting that the bulls may have one last run left. However, beneath the cheer is a sense of uneasiness, because not everyone sees a rosy picture.
That’s exactly where Paul Tudor Jones, the billionaire macro trader regarded as one of the most successful hedge fund managers of all time, comes in with a hot new take that cuts through the noise.
In a brand-new sit-down interview on CNBC, he dropped a jolting message about the stock market with major implications that could ripple far beyond traders chasing down year-end gains.
Paul Tudor Jones is an investing giant who’s often referred to as a macro trading pioneer.
He’s the founder and CIO of Tudor Investment Group, a firm that’s been in the hedge fund business since 1980.
Jones’s latest 13F portfolio lists a head-turning 3,177 positions (528 new) with a reported market value exceeding $45.92 billion and a 16% quarterly turnover.
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Some of his biggest holdings include the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), Spirit AeroSystems, and Apple (AAPL).
Over the years, he’s built a reputation as an archetype of a global macro trader, having been featured in Jack Schwager’s “Market Wizards” as perhaps the face of defense-first risk.
Jones’s credo is simple: “The most important rule of trading is to play great defense, not great offense.” The philosophy was built on tight stops that risk a little to make a lot instead of chasing big wins.
Perhaps his legend was crystallized on Black Monday (Oct. 19, 1987), when he correctly predicted the crash and profited in the process, which became his career-defining move.
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1980: Founded Tudor Investment Corporation with a global macro focus.
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1987: Calls and profits from Black Monday catapulted him to fame.
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1988: Launches the Robin Hood Foundation to efficiently fight poverty in NYC.
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1989: Featured in “Market Wizards” (“The Art of Aggressive Trading”).
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2020: Endorses Bitcoin as an inflation hedge (“fastest horse”).
In asit-down on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Jones just flipped near-term bullish, saying the current stock market setup “feels exactly like 1999” and traders need to “position [for] October ’99.”
He reminded investors of the time when the Nasdaq doubled from early October 1999 to March 2000, underscoring classic blow-off mechanics before the fall.
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The fuel mix is exactly what drives Jones’s sharp take.
He points to a highly conducive fiscal-monetary cocktail including “three or four” Fed cuts, real rates near 0% (or below), and a 6% budget deficit.
“Three or four rate cuts… monetary policy that’s going to take us to real rates of zero or less… We had a budget surplus in ’99 and 2000. Now we’ve got a six percent budget deficit.”
He feels these elements can effectively bump up risk assets by year-end, but you’ll need “happy feet” to hop off before the ugly part.
On leadership, he’s watching what’s already running hot.
Jones discusses gold, bitcoin, and a Morgan Stanley “retail flow” basket of meme stocks as some of the best investment vehicles.
His “fastest horse,” though, is the Nasdaq, alongside gold and crypto.
Jones also stresses the importance of participation and timing, which means that hedge funds, real-money, and retail all need to pile in for the stock market to move meaningfully.
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Paul Tudor Jones says this market “feels exactly like 1999,” calling for a short-term boost led by rate cuts, liquidity, and momentum before a potential blow-off top.
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He’s eyeing “three or four” Fed cuts, real rates near zero, and a 6% budget deficit.
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His “fastest horses” into year-end: the Nasdaq, gold, and bitcoin.
The chorus for a year-end melt-up seems to have gotten louder.
For instance, Ed Yardeni just bumped up his “melt-up” odds to 30% from 25% in his Oct. 26 Yardeni QuickTakes, spearheaded by softer inflation along with the Fed tilting to cuts, “classic late-cycle rocket fuel.”
He does still keep a 50% base-case bull, but clearly outlines that the “euphoria risk is rising.”
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Over at Goldman Sachs, the firm increased its S&P 500 target to 6,800 in late September, foreseeing a strong path to 7,000 to 7,200 over 6–12 months. The logic is based on rate cuts, resilient earnings, and growing multiples.
Also, HSBC elevated its target to 6,500, citing stronger-than-expected profits and just a “modest” tariff drag.
Further, there’s Tom Lee of Fundstrat, who’s still waving the 7,000 S&P flag into year-end 2025. He also feels that under-invested funds could potentially “panic-bid on dips” as rate cuts hit.
On top of that, the money flow data tells the same story.
The BofA/EPFR tracked a record $8.7 billion weekly increase flowing into gold funds, with the metal skyrocketing to an all-time high near $4,381/oz., part of $50 billion over four months.
Similarly, we’ve seen that equity funds are on pace for $693 billion in 2025 inflows, which includes a whopping $14.1 billion in just one late-October week.
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This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Oct 29, 2025, where it first appeared in the Investing section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.