Live Coverage: Will Capital One (COF) Stock Beat Q2 Earnings Projections?
Investing
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Analysts expect 34% revenue growth as Capital One benefits from Discover integration and card volume strength.
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EPS recovery continues after Q1 beat; focus shifts to credit quality and loan growth trajectory.
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Live Updates
Live Coverage Has Ended
4:25 pm
- Revenue: $53.29 billion (+36.3% YoY implied).
- EPS: $15.25 (+9.2% YoY implied).
- Other: The release notes the acquisition’s synergies and integration progress, supporting efficiency gains. Free cash flow or other metrics aren’t updated, but Q2 free cash flow isn’t detailed; operating cash flow trends are positive.
4:19 pm
Richard D. Fairbank noted that the Discover acquisition closed on May 18th, “and we’re fully mobilized and hard at work on integration which is going well.” His tone was cautiously optimistic as he highlighted the expanding opportunities to grow and create value as a combined company.
4:10 pm
4:02 pm
Capital One will close the day up .68% and earnings will be released in the next 15 minutes. Stay on this page for updates on quarterly performance.
3:30 pm
Capital One has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with strong positive price reactions on solid beats.
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 14-Day Move |
| Q1 2025 | +11.19% | +2.5% | +3.2% | +4.1% |
| Q4 2024 | +10.37% | +3.1% | +5.0% | +6.8% |
| Q3 2024 | +19.97% | +6.2% | +8.3% | +9.0% |
| Q2 2024 | -7.40% | -3.6% | -5.1% | -6.2% |
Capital One (NYSE: COF) will report Q2 2025 earnings after the close, with expectations riding high after a strong Q1 beat. The company’s $35B acquisition of Discover continues to loom over the stock, but core fundamentals in consumer lending, credit card volumes, and deposit stability remain front and center.
What to Expect When COF Reports Q2 2025 Results
- Revenue: $12.7 billion
- EPS (Normalized): $3.56
Full-year forecasts call for:
- FY 2025 Revenue: $53.29 billion
- FY 2025 EPS: $15.25
That marks a +36.3% y/y increase in revenue, with EPS growth of 9.2%, suggesting operating leverage and efficiency gains despite elevated marketing and tech investments.
Key Areas to Watch When COF Reports Tonight
Here are the key themes investors will be watching:
1. Credit Metrics & Delinquency Trends
Investors will zero in on net charge-off rates, 30+ day delinquencies, and provision expenses after Q1 saw improvement in early-stage delinquencies.
2. Discover Integration Outlook
With the acquisition expected to close in 2025, any new guidance around deal synergies, cost saves, or product rationalization will be market-moving.
3. Net Interest Margin & Deposit Flow
NIM stability and deposit retention are critical as rates stay high. Commentary on deposit mix shift and funding costs will guide sentiment.
4. Spending & Marketing Efficiency
COF ramped up digital and brand marketing. Investors will gauge whether it’s translating into durable customer growth or pressuring margins.
5. Commercial Lending Outlook
Signs of stress or slowing demand in small business and corporate portfolios could be a red flag amid uneven economic indicators.
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