Look for predictability in the Fed’s interest rate decision next week

There’s a lot of economic data coming out between now and the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week — not to mention a presidential election. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index is out, as is September job openings, which fell to a 3 1/2-year low, and consumer confidence, which, in October, hit its highest level in nine months.

And that’s just the beginning. Wednesday, gross domestic product measures are released, and the next read on inflation comes Thursday via the personal consumption expenditures index. And on Friday? The jobs report.

Nothing is ever certain when it comes to the economy. But Carola Binder, an economist at the University of Texas at Austin, is pretty certain the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, because that’s what the Fed has signaled.

“They want it to be as predictable as possible,” she said.

Predictable because the Fed is meeting right after the election and doesn’t want to appear partisan. And predictable because markets have already priced in the cut. The Fed under Chair Jerome Powell has a pattern: Set expectations and follow through.

Which means this week’s economic data isn’t likely to inform November’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets interest rates.

“The more important thing is going to be what it signals about that future path,” Binder said. “So what it signals about what it might do in December and even farther into the future.”

For insight on that, Randy Kroszner, a former Fed governor, will mostly focus on jobs.

“The key wildcard will be the employment report,” he said. “We’ve had a down, we’ve had an up. So where are things going?”

A super strong jobs report, and the Fed might signal keeping rates steady in December. 

This far in the game though, economists have to squint at the subtext to get a read on the economy by looking at numbers like the job quits rate and auto loan delinquencies. The Fed’s goal, according to Dartmouth College economist Andrew Levin? “They’re trying to find the Goldilocks level of interest rates,” he said.

Which requires a bit of a patience and not overreacting to “just a few data points that are coming in,” he said.

Instead, the Fed will likely wait for a pattern to emerge before it makes its next move. Or really, signal the move it might make, months ahead.