National Hurricane Center tracking Tropical Storm Jerry, Invest 96L, 3 tropical waves

As Tropical Storm Jerry continues to strengthen as it approaches the Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center is also tracking a new system: Invest 96L.

Jerry is expected to become a hurricane by the weekend, although models disagree on how strong it could get. The storm is expected to curve north and then east, staying away from Florida and the United States.

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The new system on the National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map is Invest 96L — AL96 — in the northern Atlantic. It has a low chance for development as it moves over cooler waters and runs into wind shear, which helps prevent tropical storms from developing.

Here’s the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m. Thursday, Oct. 9:

🌀 2025 Hurricane Season Guide: Storm preparedness tips, supply list, evacuation zones

Storm tracker: Tropical Storm Jerry moving toward Caribbean

Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. 

Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Jerry

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. 

➤ Track Tropical Storm Jerry

Tropical Storm Jerry expected to strengthen into hurricane

Tropical Storm Jerry is expected to become a hurricane by the weekend.

Where could Tropical Storm Jerry go?

Jerry is expected to curve north and then east after passing near the northern Leeward Islands, staying away from Florida and the U.S.

Spaghetti models for Invest 96L

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. 

What is an invest?

Short for investigation, the National Hurricane Center uses the term invest for areas of low pressure it is monitoring for potential development into a tropical depression or storm.

Invests are not tropical depressions or tropical storms. They’re usually clusters of showers and thunderstorms, and just because they’ve been designated as an invest does not guarantee they’ll strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane.

Invests run from 90 to 99, followed by a letter: L for the Atlantic basin and E for those in the eastern Pacific. After 99, it starts over again and the next invest would be 90.

Once something has been designated as an invest, specialized data sets and computer models can begin, including scheduling Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions and running spaghetti models.

Is there a hurricane coming toward Florida?

No.

While Tropical Storm Jerry is expected to strengthen into a hurricane, forecasters predict it will turn toward the north, following a path similar to other hurricanes this year and staying away from Florida and the U.S.

Invest 96L is in the central Atlantic, far from Florida and the U.S. Models show it moving north into colder waters — which help prevent tropical storm development.

Forecasters warned, though, residents should always be prepared since forecasts can change.

What other tropical waves, disturbances are in Atlantic basin now?

Along with Tropical Storm Jerry, the National Hurricane Center is tracking Invest 96L.

Invest 96L: A gale-force non-tropical area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the west-northwest of the Azores is producing limited shower activity near its center. Some subtropical or tropical development of this system is possible over the next day or two before it moves over even cooler waters and into a stronger shear environment.

• Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.

• Formation chance through 7 days: low, 10 percent.

The National Hurricane Center also is watching three tropical waves in the Atlantic basin, including two in the Caribbean:

• An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W, from 20N southward, and moving west at around 23 mph. Scattered moderate convection is noted along 10N.

• An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W, from 19N southward, moving west at around 11 mph. Scattered moderate convection dots the waters from 14N to 18N between 65W and 70W.

• A western Caribbean tropical wave is noted along 81W, moving west at around 11 mph. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the NW Caribbean from 19.5N to 22N between 81W and 85W.

What do the colored, hatched areas on the NOAA map mean?

The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.

The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high.

The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.

“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.

Who is likely to be impacted by Tropical Storm Jerry?

Jerry could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the northern Leeward Islands later today and tonight, Oct. 9. Through Friday, 2 to 4 inches of rain with local storm total maxima to 6 inches are expected across the Leeward and Virgin Islands.

Forecasters urge all residents to keep an eye on the tropics and to always be prepared.

Florida weather radar for Oct. 9, 2025

Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida

When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.

The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.

When is the peak of hurricane season?

The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

Hurricane names for 2025 season

Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them. The first hurricane of the season typically forms Aug. 11.

• Andrea  (June 20)

• Barry  (June 29)

• Chantal (July 5)

• Dexter: (Aug. 3)

• Erin: (Aug. 11; hurricane Aug. 15; major hurricane Aug. 16)

• Fernand: (Aug. 23)

• Gabrielle: (Sept. 17; hurricane Sept. 21; major hurricane Sept. 22)

• Humberto: (Sept. 24; hurricane Sept. 26; major hurricane Sept. 25)

• Imelda: (Sept. 28; hurricane Sept. 30)

• Jerry: Oct. 7

• Karen: KAIR-ren

• Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh

• Melissa: meh-LIH-suh

• Nestor: NES-tor

• Olga: OAL-guh

• Pablo: PAHB-lo

• Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh

• Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en

• Tanya: TAHN-yuh

• Wendy: WEN-dee

National Hurricane Center map: See what forecasters are watching now

Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

Why does NHC say ‘tropical cyclone’ on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm?

Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it’s in the tropical Atlantic basin.

To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a “rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation,” NOAA sadi.

Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:

• Hurricane: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.

• Typhoon: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.

• Cyclone: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.

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This story has been updated to include new information.

This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Florida weather update shows Tropical Storm Jerry forecast, path