Nvidia stock is 'on track' but lacks 'meaningful new catalysts'

00:00 Speaker A

With Nvidia, Doug, what what do you make of the price action there? I mean, I’m just looking at it’s been basically in this kind of rough trading range here, going sideways for about six months. What what what is going on there?

00:20 Doug

You know, I think there haven’t been any meaningful new catalysts for the stock. You know, the biggest event I think over the past few months for Nvidia was when Jensen went out, he talked about this $500 billion backlog, which suggests that numbers are, you know, significantly probably better than where the street was at looking into 2026. That backlog is for both Blackwell and Reuben. And I know at CES he did mention that that backlog continues to grow. So I think from a fundamental standpoint, everything looks on track for the stock. I think the problem though is so many investors are already fully allocated into Nvidia, it’s hard to find that incremental buyer to really move the price.

01:17 Doug

From a megacap perspective, I would tell you this though. At intelligent Alpha, we use these large language models to do our stock portfolio uh management. And our models have really liked Amazon coming into this year from the megacap perspective. I think that’s the one that we want to own right now.

01:43 Speaker A

Why why Doug? We do own it in our GPTF. Yeah, run me through that. How come?

01:49 Doug

Yeah, I think that it’s a little bit analogous to the Google story of mid-last year where it felt like Google was just totally washed out in the summer. All the bad news had been priced in. Search was going to die to AI. They released a new model. At that time it was uh Gemini 2.5. The model was great and then the story just turned, right? People started using Google products. They were more aggressive putting the products into their existing uh user base and the stock took off. I think Amazon’s kind of similar. The stock was up about 5% last year. It was the worst performing Mega cap if I recall. And I think it’s set up right now where there’s no AI bid in the stock. AWS had a great quarter last quarter. If they can keep showing some acceleration on the AWS side, I think they can get an AI bid and the stock could work from here.