Nvidia's earnings live: stock gains as investors brace for key results

Thanks for following the blog today. That’s everything from us for now.

Join us tomorrow for more previews of Nvidia’s results, plus live coverage of the release itself and the accompanying earnings call.

Could Middle East make up for Nvidia’s lost China sales?

The US administration is in the process of rewriting the rules surrounding the export of advanced AI chips, like Nvidia’s, to China.

Jensen Huang has been outspoken about the impact of the restrictions, calling them “fundamentally flawed” during a conference in Taiwan last week. Some analysts, though, think that Nvidia will make up for the lost sales thanks to a concerted effort in the Middle East to boost the region’s AI capabilities.

Donald Trump is reported to have negotiated deals allowing Nvidia and rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) to export more of their high-end AI chips to US allies in the region, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

These countries “are pouring billions into AI infrastructure, buying hundreds of thousands of GPUs,” says Lale Akoner, global market analyst at eToro.

“This is all part of a regional focus in the Middle East building out datacenters and the AI Revolution which will start to vault UAE, Saudi, Qatar to the priority list for US tech companies,” says Dan Ives, global head of technology research at Wedbush Securities.

Nvidia’s earnings: investors will look for guidance, says eToro

Investors will be just as focused on the forward-looking numbers – the guidance – as they are on Nvidia’s raw Q1 numbers, which after all are backward-looking at this point.

What the company says it will achieve, and how CEO Jensen Huang and the wider management team respond to analyst questions in the earnings call, will dictate the short-term market reaction to tomorrow’s earnings results.

“The real test lies in [Nvidia’s] guidance and ability to ease investor concerns,” says Lale Akoner, global market analyst at eToro.

“The Godfather of AI”: why Nvidia’s earnings matter to you

Why do Nvidia’s results matter to the average investor?

There’s a credible argument that Nvidia is the most important individual stock in the world at present. It is the world’s second-most valuable company by market cap (as of market close on 23 May) and comprises about 6% of the S&P 500, making it the index’s second-largest constituent.

Unlike Microsoft, which currently occupies top spot on both counts, Nvidia is a true bellwether for the AI market, which underpins the investment case for Microsoft and the rest of the Magnificent Seven stocks. It builds the infrastructure for AI, and as such, its performance and outlook are a direct reflection of market confidence in the future of the technology economy, which has been the biggest stock market driver for over a decade.

“There is no company in the world more important to the markets and global investor sentiment than Nvidia,” says Dan Ives, global head of technology research at Wedbush Securities. “The Street [will be] laser focused tomorrow after the bell when we hear April results/guidance from the Godfather of AI Jensen [Huang].”

In a very real sense, the strength of investor sentiment following Nvidia’s earnings release tomorrow will directly impact the tracker funds that, most likely, comprise much of your pension fund – so even if you don’t consider yourself an active investor, you are likely far more exposed to Nvidia’s shares than you realise.

Nvidia developing cheaper Chinese chip

Nvidia is developing a new AI chipset for the Chinese market, which will be priced at around $6,500-8,000, significantly lower than the $10-12,000 that its H20 chips currently sell for, according to sources familiar with the matter cited by Reuters.

If the chip is approved for sale in China, it could “soften the blow” of export restrictions which could cost the business $15 billion in sales next year alone, according to Lale Akoner, global market analyst at eToro.

Nvidia shares open 2% higher

US markets have started trading for the day, and Nvidia’s shares have opened 2.2% above last week’s close.

Nvidia stock has fallen 0.1% in the year to date, but has staged a recovery since the downturn that Trump’s tariffs instigated, gaining 28% over the past month.

Export controls could cost Nvidia $50 billion

Besides the headline numbers, investors will be particularly interested in the sales of Nvidia’s individual products, particularly its latest generations of AI chips, as well as the impact that trade tensions between the US and China could have on its profits.

“Much attention will fall on the rollout of Blackwell Ultra GPUs – Nvidia’s latest high-performance chips boasting up to 30% better performance and improved efficiency,” says Alex Rudolph, market analyst at IG. “Alongside this, the RTX 50-Series – including the more accessible RTX 5060 – extends Nvidia’s AI push into the consumer space.”

But “geopolitics remains a drag”, Rudolph adds. Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang has warned that export controls on its highest-end chips, as part of US government initiatives to restrict China’s access to AI technology that began under Joe Biden, could cost the company $50 billion.

“Recent tariff relief offers a sliver of optimism,” says Rudolph.

Nvidia’s results: what to expect

So what are we expecting from Nvidia’s upcoming earnings release?

Analysts polled by London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) expect Nvidia’s earnings per share (EPS) to increase 44.3% year-over-year to $0.88 for the first quarter of its 2026 financial year.

If that figure is accurate, it implies a slight decline quarter-over-quarter, with Nvidia’s Q4 2025 EPS having hit $0.89. That would make it Nvidia’s first quarterly EPS decline since Q2 of its 2023 financial year (which coincided with Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, which significantly dented the performance of technology companies).

Quarterly revenue is expected to increase 65.9% year-over-year to $43.21 billion.

When does Nvidia announce results?

Nvidia’s results will be announced tomorrow (Wednesday 28 May) after markets close in the US, which happens at 9pm in the UK.

Nvidia’s earnings call is scheduled to take place at 2pm PT, which is 10pm in the UK. This is where we’ll hear CEO Jensen Huang discuss the company’s outlook and field calls from analysts. This is where you’d expect to see investors’ big questions, particularly the impact of Trump’s frosty trading relationship with China on Nvidia’s outlook, get answered.

US markets will be closed, but the shares will be traded in after-hours trading, which will give an indication of markets’ initial reaction to Nvidia’s results and management’s comments.

Nvidia’s quarterly earnings: the lay of the land

Good morning, and welcome to our live blog covering Nvidia’s earnings release. What a difference a quarter makes.

Three months ago, the question on every investor’s lips was whether Nvidia could defy DeepSeek, the Chinese AI chatbot that appeared to be able to outperform Western models like ChatGPT, without relying on Nvidia’s premium chips.

That now seems a distant memory, with Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs having since thrown global markets into turmoil. While the worst of the tariffs are now mostly subject to temporary pauses, the future for the global economy, particularly US-China trade, is far from certain.

Nvidia’s earnings is always one of the highlights of the investing calendar, and the team at MoneyWeek are ready to bring you rolling news and in-depth analysis in the run-up and as the event unfolds. Stay with us for all the updates.