Nvidia's Monster Rally Meets Its September Curse

Nvidia Corp. NVDA has added an eye-watering $2 trillion in market cap since bottoming out in April 2025, but investors may now be wondering whether the rally has gone too far, too fast.

The AI darling is set to report third-quarter earnings on Wednesday after the close, and while expectations remain sky-high, some on Wall Street are urging caution—not because the AI story is fading, but because the bar is simply too high.

Waiting For Nvidia’s Next Big Catalyst: Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider, Ph.D., remains structurally bullish on Nvidia, but he flagged a potential lull in upward catalysts.

“We remain very bullish on Nvidia’s prospects for outsized growth in 2026,” he wrote in a note Monday, citing hyperscaler CapEx momentum and growing demand from non-traditional customers.

Yet, he added that “it may be difficult for the stock to outperform in the next few months, given a potential lack of hard data to drive estimate revisions.”

In Schneider’s view, Nvidia’s next leg higher likely depends on a few key catalysts: any upside surprises in hyperscaler capital expenditure (CapEx) estimates, new details around the launch timeline for the Rubin platform, and clearer commentary on how U.S. export controls are affecting Nvidia’s China revenues.

Without substantial updates on these fronts, investor enthusiasm may cool as uncertainty over 2026 and beyond creeps back in.

The Options Market Say “Caution”

Jeff Jacobson, analyst at 22V Research, suggests Nvidia’s stock could be at a tactical inflection point. While he’s not bearish on the long-term story, he indicated that risk-reward heading into earnings is less compelling.

“There are compelling reasons to sell upside calls against a long NVDA equity position,” Jacobson wrote Monday.

Jacobson flagged several reasons for caution ahead of earnings. First, valuation looks tight, with Nvidia now trading less than 10% below the Street’s average 12-month price target of $195.

The last time shares approached that level—back in June 2024—it marked a local peak that held for nearly four months.

Second, short interest has collapsed, now sitting at a five-year low and down 50% from 2023 highs. That removes one key upside driver: the potential for a post-earnings short squeeze.

Finally, expectations may already be fully baked in. After a 105% rally since April, driven by enthusiasm and repeated estimate upgrades, there’s very little room for Nvidia to miss a step.

The September Problem

There’s also the seasonal curse. September has historically been Nvidia’s worst-performing month.

Since its 1999 IPO, Nvidia stock has averaged a -2.19% return in September, worse than any other month of the year. It finishes higher just 58% of the time, and three of the past five Septembers ended in the red.

And it’s not just Nvidia. The S&P 500 itself struggles in September, with an average 1.85% decline and positive closes in just 46% of the years since 1999.

Read now:

Photo: Shutterstock