QS Stock Or QBTS Stock: Which Future Tech Wins?

CANADA – 2025/03/24: In this photo illustration, the QuantumScape logo is seen displayed on a smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Both QuantumScape and D-Wave Quantum have captivated investor interest with their innovative technologies and impressive 2025 returns of approximately 200% year-to-date. But if you were to select just one for the upcoming phase of the tech revolution, which would you choose?​

We believe that QuantumScape is the better option. Below, we explain why this leader in solid-state batteries surpasses the quantum computing frontrunner.

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Why QuantumScape Takes the Lead

Technology Proven in Real-World Applications

The primary question for both companies has consistently been: “When will this truly work?” QuantumScape has just provided a definitive answer. In September 2025, the company presented the world’s first live demonstration of an electric vehicle powered by solid-state batteries at IAA Mobility in Munich, showcasing a Ducati V21L motorcycle integrated with their QSE-5 cells.​

This wasn’t merely a lab test—it was a fully functional vehicle showcasing an energy density of 844Wh/L, achieving charging from 10% to 80% in just 12 minutes, along with continuous 10C output. D-Wave, despite having commercial systems available, still lacks mass-market applications that yield significant revenue.

Clear Path to Commercialization with Major Partners

While D-Wave discusses future potential, QuantumScape is following a tangible roadmap. The firm recently shipped its B1 samples utilizing the groundbreaking Cobra process in Q3 2025—a production technique that is 25 times more efficient than its predecessor. These samples are directly entering Volkswagen’s vehicle program for 2026 road testing.​

The strength of the partnership underscores the narrative: Volkswagen’s PowerCo has just pledged up to $131 million in milestone-based funding over two years. Furthermore, Toyota is racing towards solid-state battery commercialization by 2027-2028, creating a huge market opportunity that QuantumScape is poised to capture.

Revenue Visibility vs. Revenue Hopes

This is where the figures become captivating. QuantumScape recorded its first-ever customer billings in Q3 2025 ($12.8 million), indicating a pivotal shift from exclusive R&D to commercial operations. D-Wave, despite being more advanced in commercialization, anticipates only about $3.12 million in quarterly revenue—barely enough to support a market cap exceeding $10 billion.

Market Size and Timing Advantage

The global EV battery market vastly outstrips quantum computing applications in scale. With Toyota targeting 2027-2028 for solid-state battery vehicles and other manufacturers in alignment, QuantumScape stands at the forefront of a multi-trillion-dollar energy transition. D-Wave’s quantum applications, despite their potential, remain niche and years away from widespread use.

The Risk Reality Check

It is vital to recognize that investing in these companies is far from certain success. Both QuantumScape and D-Wave Quantum encounter substantial, unique, and shared risks.

QuantumScape Risks: The Manufacturing Hurdle

Let’s be frank—QuantumScape isn’t a certainty. The company’s most significant challenge lies in scaling: transitioning from successful lab samples to gigawatt-hour production at automotive levels remains unverified. If commercialization schedules are delayed, the stock’s remarkable 180% gain this year might swiftly diminish. Additionally, competition is heating up, with established industry players such as Toyota and SK On quickly advancing their own solid-state battery technologies.

D-Wave Quantum Risks: The Quantum Winter Threat

D-Wave confronts the existential danger of a “quantum winter”—a situation where practical quantum advantages take longer to emerge than anticipated. While D-Wave’s quantum annealing method is operational today, it risks being eclipsed by competitor gate-based quantum computers for a broad selection of future applications. With revenue still minimal and competition intensifying from tech giants like IBM and Google, D-Wave’s initial advantage could be easily lost. Also see – What’s The Downside Risk For D-Wave Quantum Stock?

Shared Speculative Risks

Both companies share significant vulnerabilities due to their financial positions:

1. Sky-High Valuations: Both possess valuations based on anticipated potential rather than existing financial performance.
2. Market Volatility: Market sentiment towards highly speculative tech stocks fluctuates, meaning any general tech sell-off could severely affect both entities. See how QS stock performed in recent economic downturns.
3. Capital Vulnerability: As neither company is profitable, they are highly susceptible to tightening capital market conditions and the necessity for future funding.

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The Verdict

In this comparison, QuantumScape emerges as the victor due to its clearer and more immediate pathway to substantial commercial validation within a broader addressable market.

While D-Wave was a pioneer in the commercial quantum computing field, QuantumScape is leading the energy storage revolution that will drive the next decade of transportation. QS shows tangible advancement towards commercial reality: the live vehicle demonstration, B1 sample shipments, and the Volkswagen partnership all align with a feasible 2027–2028 commercial timeline that corresponds with automotive industry needs.

In contrast, D-Wave’s quantum applications, though technically impressive, still do not possess the immediate market appeal and revenue prospects currently visible for solid-state batteries. For investors looking to capitalize on genuinely transformative technologies, QuantumScape presents a more straightforward path to significant returns in a market that is already actively seeking the solution they are developing.