See spaghetti models, possible path for strengthening storm Invest 98L. Any Florida impacts?

The National Hurricane Center warned Invest 98L is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm later today, Oct. 21.

Maximum sustained winds need to reach at least 39 mph for the invest to be designated as a tropical storm.

If it becomes a tropical storm as expected, it would become Melissa.

AccuWeather said the system could strengthen into a hurricane as it moves through the extremely warm waters of the Caribbean.

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Forecasters said heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over portions of the ABC Islands over the next couple of days.

Residents and visitors in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba were advised to monitor the system since it could bring heavy rain and flooding, strong winds, and rough surf later this week.

Spaghetti models for Invest 98L. See expected path

Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

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Where is Invest 98L and where is it going?

Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. 

Could Florida feel impact from Invest 98L?

Warm waters in the Caribbean make the area a region prime for tropical development, according to AccuWeather.

“The tropical rainstorm in the Caribbean is likely to further intensify into a named storm,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva, adding a powerful hurricane is also possible.

“While we think that the chances of a direct U.S. hit from this storm are low right now, it’s still on the table should the tropical system make it into the western Caribbean,” DaSilva said.

“Historically, tropical systems that reach the western Caribbean in October are more likely to be steered away from places like Texas and Louisiana. But the eastern United States, and Florida in particular, can still be impacted by intense storms,” AccuWeather said.

Forecasters encourage residents to monitor the tropics and to always be prepared.

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This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Spaghetti models Invest 98L, tracker, path. Florida impacts