Social Security adjusts COLA estimate for 2026: How much would your benefits increase?
The latest forecast from The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) indicates that Social Security beneficiaries could see a 2.7% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in 2026, up 0.1 percentage points from the July projection.
The updated estimate, released on August 12, reflects last month’s inflation data and offers the first official month of figures used in the final calculation, following a 0.2% rise in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).
Year-over-year, the index was 2.7% higher before seasonal adjustment, and this modest inflation rate marks a stark shift from the elevated levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The official 2026 COLA will be determined in October, when the Social Security Administration calculates the average inflation rate for the third quarter-July, August, and September-and compares it to the same period in 2024.
This year’s beneficiaries received a 2.5% increase, meaning next year’s projected rate would be slightly larger. However, both are well below the exceptional adjustments of recent years as the economy recovers from the impact of Covid-19.
“With the COLA announcement around the corner,” Shannon Benton, TSCL executive director, said. “Seniors across America are holding their breath.
“While a higher COLA would be welcome because their monthly benefits will increase, many will be disappointed.
“TSCL’s research shows that many seniors believe the COLA does not adequately capture the inflation they experience.”
How much would Social Security benefits increase by?
If the average monthly Social Security benefit in July 2025 is $1,863.12 and the projected 2026 COLA is 2.7%, the increase would be calculated as an extra $50.30 per month.
So, based on July 2025’s average, beneficiaries would receive about $50 more each month starting in January 2026 if the 2.7% adjustment holds, for a new monthly benefit of $1,913.42.
The July data is significant because it represents the first month used in the official COLA formula, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) that the Social Security Administration bases the adjustment on.
However, the CPI-W is weighted differently than the CPI-U, and it often underrepresents expenses most common among seniors, according to the policy analyst, Mary Johnson.
“Prices on the items that older Americans use the most remain elevated,” Johnson said, pointing to housing, medical care, transportation, and groceries-categories that together account for over 85% of household spending for those aged 62 and older.
Trump scores Supreme Court Social Security win
A federal appeals court has allowed the Trump Administration’s “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) to continue accessing sensitive federal data, including Social Security numbers and citizenship status.
The Fourth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, in a 2-1 decision, overturned a lower court’s injunction sought by unions and veterans’ groups, ruling they were unlikely to prove federal privacy violations and may lack standing.
DOGE, launched by Donald Trump and initially led by Elon Musk, has overseen widespread federal job and spending cuts.