Social Security increase is coming: Latest COLA estimate and when you’ll know the amount

Those who receive Social Security benefits are expected to see a slight increase in their payments next year. However, senior advocates say the pay bump isn’t likely to be enough to meet rising costs that millions of Americans are experiencing.

Earlier this month, the nonpartisan advocacy group The Senior Citizens League released its final projection for the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). The prediction projects a 2.7% increase in benefits checks, which would be up just .2% from the 2.5% COLA in 2025.

“Seniors across America are holding their breath as we wait for the official COLA announcement in October,” said TSCL director Shannon Benton. “Our research shows that about 39 percent of seniors depend on their benefits for all their income, so the COLA announcement has a direct effect on their quality of life.”

The yearly COLA is determined by the Social Security Administration. The agency determines the adjustment by using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners (CPI-W) for the months of July, August and September and comparing that to the same time period from the year prior. The CPI-W is calculated by analyzing the spending habits of Americans when it comes to items like food, consumer goods, housing, health care and more.

While a 2.7% increase is anticipated, Benton says many seniors are concerned about their ability to make ends meet.

“Many seniors believe inflation is much higher than the COLA estimates. For example, TSCL estimates that about 80 percent of seniors believed inflation in 2024 was substantially higher than the 2.5 percent COLA implemented to make up for it at the beginning of 2025,” Benton said.

Over the last 10 years, the yearly adjustment has routinely come in below the average inflation rate of 3%, with the exception of three years during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since 2016, the COLA has been:

• January 2016 — 0.0%
• January 2017 — 0.3%
• January 2018 — 2.0%
• January 2019 — 2.8%
• January 2020 — 1.6%
• January 2021 — 1.3%
• January 2022 — 5.9%
• January 2023 — 8.7%
• January 2024 — 3.2%
• January 2025 — 2.5%

The actual 2026 COLA is expected to be announced on Oct. 15.