S&P 500 futures tick higher after historic rally on Trump's tariff walkback: Live updates

Stocks fell Thursday, giving back some of the gains from the historic rally seen in the previous session after President Donald Trump announced a 90-day reprieve on some of his “reciprocal” tariffs. Investors worried that even with the short pause on some of the duties, economic activity will be slowed by Trump’s singling out of China with a much higher rate.

The S&P 500 sold off 3.46% and closed at 5,268.05, while the Nasdaq Composite slid 4.31% to end at 16,387.31. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,014.79 points, or 2.5%, settling at 39,593.66.

Notable decliners included Apple and Tesla, which pulled back 4.2% and 7.3%, respectively. Nvidia lost nearly 6%, while Meta Platforms slipped almost 7%.

Losses accelerated after the White House confirmed to CNBC on Thursday that the cumulative tariff rate on China would actually total 145%. This consists of the new 125% duty on goods, on top of the 20% rate levied in response to the fentanyl crisis.

Nonetheless, Trump said later in the afternoon that he is not ruling out an extension to the tariff pause.

“We’ll have to see what happens at that time,” Trump said at a Cabinet meeting.

Here are the tariffs currently in effect:

• 145% duty on all goods from China
• 25% tariffs targeting aluminum, autos and goods from Canada and Mexico not under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement
• 10% levy on all other imports

Thursday’s market moves pared back a portion of the gains from Wednesday’s historic surge, in which the S&P 500 soared more than 9% for its third-largest gain in a single day since World War II. The Dow also saw its biggest percentage advance since March 2020, while the Nasdaq scored its biggest one-day gain since January 2001 and second-best day on record.

“Investors have sobered up,” said Melissa Brown, SimCorp managing director of applied research. “Uncertainty is a big issue because the 145% rate could be a different number tomorrow. It’s very hard to call a bottom or a top because things have changed so much in the narrative and investor perceptions.”

The rally took off after Trump announced a temporary drop in tariff rates for most countries to 10% for 90 days. Canada and Mexico won’t be subjected to an additional 10% duty, however. The European Union announced Thursday a similar 90-day pause on levies for U.S. goods.

Despite the initial optimism in response to the 90-day reprieve, many on the Street think the market is not yet out of the woods. Even with the delay in some tariffs, the hike on China duties puts the effective tariff rate at a historic high, according to Morgan Stanley.

“Delays help, but do not reduce uncertainty,” Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. economist, wrote in a Thursday note.

Major averages close lower Thursday

U.S. stocks ended Thursday’s session in negative territory.

The S&P 500 dropped 3.46%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 1,014.79 points, or 2.5%. The Nasdaq Composite declined 4.31%.

— Hakyung Kim

Gold rises to best day since April 2020

Gold futures settled 3.2% higher at $3,177.50 Thursday, marking its best day since April 9, 2020.

Week to date, gold futures are up around 4.7%, on track for their best week since Nov. 22, 2024.

— Hakyung Kim, Gina Francolla

Bitcoin falls as investors slash rally gains but holds just under $80,000

Cryptocurrencies pulled back with the broader market as investors gave back more than half of Wednesday’s historic rally.

The price of bitcoin fell nearly 4% to $79,158.62, according to Coin Metrics. Ether dropped 8% and Solana’s SOL token tumbled more than 7%.

Meanwhile, Coinbase fell 6%, while bitcoin proxy Strategy lost about 8%.

Many investors have been impressed by bitcoin’s resilience since the tariff-fueled market volatility began a week ago. At $79,000, bitcoin is hovering just under the $80,000 floor that has supported it for much of this year.

“While it’s no secret that BTC is still closely tied to the daily fluctuations of the market and overall sentiment, its ability to hang in in the face of this recent bloodbath has been impressive,” Read Harvey, an analyst at Wolfe Research, said in a note. “This further leads us to view the coin as a reliable store of value, and with the market down almost double that of BTC in the past four weeks, its strength is on full demonstration.”

— Tanaya Macheel

Investors should still practice caution given lasting volatility, BTIG says

Investors cheered Wednesday’s historic rally, but going forward, BTIG believes elevated volatility is likely to stick around.

“While we can certainly see some backing and filling, given the news we don’t want to be too cautious until this rally shows that it’s exhausted itself,” the financial services firm wrote. “In other words, it seems appropriate to be neutral here anticipating a choppy trading range, and look for more asymmetric opportunities such as fading gold.”

The market choppiness was already apparent on Thursday after the major indexes gave back half their Wednesday gains.

— Lisa Kailai Han

Trump declines to rule out extension of tariff pause

Trump did not rule out extending his tariff pause beyond 90 days.

“We’ll have to see what happens at that time,” Trump said to reporters during a cabinet meeting.

The pause on some import duties that Trump announced on Wednesday is currently slated to end in July.

— Jesse Pound

Budget deficit totals $1.3 trillion for first half of 2025

The U.S. budget deficit swelled past $1.3 trillion for the first half of fiscal 2025 as rising yields put pressure on the government pocketbook.

For March, the shortfall totaled $160.5 billion, a 32% reduction from the same period in 2024 but enough to push the deficit to its second-highest level ever for the first six months, according to a Treasury report Thursday.

Net interest on the debt totaled $93 billion, with Social Security the only higher expense. Year to date, the total for net interest is at $489 billion. Total interest payments for the year come to $582 billion, or more than $60 billion ahead of the 2024 year-to-date total.

Customs duties in the early days of the heavier U.S. tariffs totaled $8.2 billion, bringing the fiscal-year total to $43.6 billion, up nearly $6 billion from the prior year.

— Jeff Cox

Dollar index on pace for biggest drop since 2022

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index has fallen about 1.8% on Thursday, its biggest drop since 2022. It is also on track to close at its lowest level since September.

Thursday’s drop extends the dollar’s losses since Trump announced his tariff policy last week. The decline for the greenback has come along with sell-offs in U.S. stocks and bonds. This could be a sign that foreign investors are responding to Trump’s protectionist policies by dumping U.S. assets, putting downward pressure on the dollar.

— Jesse Pound

NYSE decliners leading advancers 15-1

Wall Street is back in sell-off mode, with the number of declining stocks at the New York Stock Exchange outpacing advancers about 15-1. FactSet data shows that roughly 2,562 NYSE-listed names fell, while just 163 advanced.

— Fred Imbert

Stocks making the biggest midday moves: Capri, Janover and more

These are the stocks moving the most in midday trading:

• Capri Holdings — Shares fell 8% during midday trading after Prada agreed to buy Versace from Capri for $1.375 billion, which includes its debt.
• Janover — Shares surged more than 55% after the software firm completed its first purchase of the Solana token.
• Harley-Davidson — The motorcycle stock dropped 12% after the company disclosed that board member Jared Dourdeville resigned.

Read the full list of stocks moving here.

— Lisa Kailai Han

Apple shares fall more than 6% as tariff concerns persist

Apple shares lost about 6.5% in midday trading amid Thursday’s broader market sell-off, continuing the stock’s series of hefty declines.

The iPhone maker ended the previous session about 5% lower, giving up gains after the stock had earlier surged more than 15%, at one point notching its best day since 1998 after the Trump administration announced a 90-day tariff pause on several U.S. trading partners.

Apple shares have plunged more than 18% over the past month, and are down nearly 26% this year.

The company stands to be one of the most affected stocks by an intensifying U.S.-China trade war, as the company manufactures the majority of its products in China. President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs could increase the price of Apple’s iPhone 16 Pro Max by as much as $350 in the U.S., UBS analysts have estimated.

— Pia Singh

Nvidia tumbles 8%

Nvidia shares tumbled 8% as the broader market sold off on an escalating trade war with China. The slide comes after Trump hiked tariffs on Beijing to 145% from 125%.

Nvidia is the third-largest stock in the market cap-weighted S&P 500, behind Apple and Microsoft.

— Sarah Min

Vix spikes as sell off resumes

The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, jumped above 50 on Thursday as stocks gave back their gains from a day earlier.

The VIX was last at 52.91 at 12:30 p.m. ET. The spike in volatility comes as stocks began selling off and Treasury yields slipped.

— Brian Evans

Dollar index weakens 1.8%

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell 1.8% Thursday.

Traders flocked to the safe-haven yen, which pressured the dollar lower at 144.34 yen.

The euro also strengthened more than 2% versus the greenback at 1.12.

Week to date, the dollar index has depreciated around 2%.

— Hakyung Kim

Bank stocks see outsized losses

Bank stocks saw especially steep drops amid the market pullback on Thursday.

The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) slid more than 4%, as did the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE). By comparison, the S&P 500 dropped 2.5%.

Western Alliance Bancorporation was the worst-performing bank name, sinking more than 7%. Webster Financial and Voya Financial followed, with each tumbling more than 6%.

Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup also all dropped in the session.

— Alex Harring

Energy sector hardest hit as oil tumbles

Energy stocks are the hardest-hit sector in the S&P 500, falling more than 5% as oil keeps selling off on uncertainty over Trump’s trade war.

Occidental Petroleum and Devon Energy tumbled more than 6%. Oil majors Exxon and Chevron fell about 2%. Refiner Phillips 66 was down nearly 4%.

U.S. crude oil has fallen more than 4%, tumbling back below $60 per barrel. The U.S. benchmark has given up most of the gains from Wednesday’s relief rally on Trump’s decision to pause higher tariffs on most countries.

Traders have shifted focus to the escalating U.S.-China trade war after Trump hiked rates on the world’s largest crude importer to an eye-watering 145%.

— Spencer Kimball

U.S. crude oil falls back below $60 after relief rally

U.S. crude oil prices tumbled back below $60 per barrel, after a sharp rally in the previous session on Trump’s decision to pause higher tariffs on most U.S. trading partners.

The U.S. benchmark was down $3.01, or 4.83%, to $59.34 per barrel, while global benchmark Brent traded lower by $3.03, or 4.63%, to $62.45.

West Texas Intermediate gave up the gains from Wednesday’s relief rally as traders shift focus to the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China. Trump has hiked tariff rates on China, the world’s largest crude importer, to an eye-watering 125%.

— Spencer Kimball

Hardly any individual investors are neutral on stocks anymore, AAII survey says

Mostly everyone is either bearish or bullish and hardly anybody’s neutral in their outlook on stocks these days.

Neutral sentiment toward stocks looking out over the next six months slumped to 12.5%, the smallest percentage since the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis in May 2009, according to the latest weekly survey from the American Association of Individual Investors, which captured at least some small part of the reaction to Trump on Wednesday suspending most of his planned tariff increases on major trading partners, apart from China.

Historically, almost a third, or 31.5%, of investors describe themselves as neutral in any given week.

Individual investors grew a little more bullish and a little less bearish in the latest week through Wednesday. Bullish views toward stocks over the next six months rose to 28.5% from 21.8% last week (the historical average is 37.5%), while bearish opinion eased to 58.9% from 61.9% (the historic average is 31%).

This week’s 16-year high in neutral sentiment echoed last week’s 16-year high in bearish opinion among Main Street investors, when pessimism also reached its highest since 2009 and was the third-highest reading ever in the history of the survey, which dates from the 1980s.

— Scott Schnipper

Fed’s Schmid says he is focusing on inflation threat from tariffs

Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Schmid said Thursday he thinks policymakers will have to hone in on inflation threats rather than slower growth as they contemplate future moves in interest rates.

Trump’s tariffs are threatening to raise prices, though he postponed some of the most aggressive measures for a 90-day negotiation period. Normally, Fed economists see tariffs as a one-time bump in prices and not a fundamental inflation driver, but the current circumstances could be different, Schmid said.

“One enduring lesson of the high inflation period of the 1970s and early 1980s was that once inflation is embedded in expectations, it becomes much more difficult to contain,” he said in prepared remarks for a speech in his home district. “Now, with renewed price pressures likely, I am not willing to take any chances when it comes to maintaining the Fed’s credibility on inflation.”

Though he did not offer a specific course for rates, Schmid’s comments reflect sentiments of his fellow policymakers for a wait-and-see approach to how tariffs will hit the economy.

Schmid is a voting member this year on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee.

— Jeff Cox

Stocks open lower Thursday

U.S. stocks kicked off Thursday’s session in the red.

The S&P 500 fell 2.1% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 666 points, or 1.6%. The Nasdaq Composite declined 2.8%.

— Hakyung Kim

See the stocks moving before the bell

These are some of the stocks making notable moves before the bell:

• Big Tech — Megacap tech stocks pulled back following big runs during the prior session after Trump announced a pause on some reciprocal tariffs. Tesla slid more than 3% after multiple Wall Street firms cut their price targets on the electric vehicle maker. Nvidia also fell more than 3%.
• U.S. Steel — Shares sank 10.4% after Trump said he did not want the steelmaker to get in the hands of Japan, implying he did not support Nippon Steel’s bid for the company.
• CarMax — Shares of the used car retailer tumbled 7.2% on the heels of weaker-than-expected earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter. CarMax earned 58 cents per share, missing the consensus forecast of analysts polled by LSEG by 7 cents.

See the full list here.

— Alex Harring

Bank of America upgrades jeans maker Levi Strauss to buy rating

Bank of America analyst Christopher Nardone upgraded shares of jeans maker Levi Strauss to a buy rating from neutral in a Thursday note. Nardone accompanied the move by lifting his price target to $20 from $17, implying that shares of Levi Strauss could gain 34% from here.

“LEVI checks a lot of encouraging boxes: sales momentum coupled with a conservative revenue outlook, minimal China risk (sourcing and sales), an improving wholesale trajectory, a diversified supply chain, and a strong balance sheet,” the analyst wrote.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s 90-day pause on tariffs is a positive for now, but Nardone believes that Levi Strauss is well positioned in the case of more trade war-induced volatility. The analyst clarified that the firm’s China production is “minimal.”

Shares of Levi Strauss have slipped 14% in 2025.

— Lisa Kailai Han

See the stocks moving before the bell

These are some of the stocks making notable moves before the bell:

• Big Tech — Megacap tech stocks pulled back following big runs during the prior session after Trump announced a pause on some reciprocal tariffs. Tesla slid more than 3% after multiple Wall Street firms cut their price targets on the electric vehicle maker. Nvidia also fell more than 3%.
• U.S. Steel — Shares sank 10.4% after Trump said he did not want the steelmaker to get in the hands of Japan, implying he did not support Nippon Steel’s bid for the company.
• CarMax — Shares of the used car retailer tumbled 7.2% on the heels of weaker-than-expected earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter. CarMax earned 58 cents per share, missing the consensus forecast of analysts polled by LSEG by 7 cents.

See the full list here.

— Alex Harring

Morgan Stanley upgrades cruise stock Carnival to equal weight

Morgan Stanley analyst Jamie Rollo upgraded cruise operator Carnival to an equal-weight rating from underweight. However, the analyst also lowered his price target to $21 from $25.

Shares of Carnival have shed 21% this year. Rollo’s updated forecast is approximately 7% above the stock’s Wednesday closing price.

“We upgrade CCL to Equal-weight given the risk-reward skew now looks fairer, and our Underweight thesis was based on a very different macro outlook,” the analyst wrote.

However, Rollo added that under a recession scenario, he would prefer to avoid the cruise industry altogether.

— Lisa Kailai Han

Barclays upgrades Danaher to overweight on less ‘offensive’ valuation

Barclays believes Danaher‘s fundamental business model remains resilient, despite the stock being “priced to perfection.”

Analyst Luke Sergott upgraded the life sciences stock to an overweight rating, but lowered his price target to $205 from $240.

Shares of Danaher have slipped 16% this year. Sergott’s updated price forecast still implies the stock could gain 7% from its Wednesday close.

“Valuation is still expensive, but not as offensive as it was 6 mos ago for the growth expected,” the analyst wrote. “While we do not see a ton of valuation upside in the current environment, we do think that the Dx stability and the Biopro momentum is enough to offset any Life Sci weakness to the point where we do not see as much downside to out-year estimates as we do with other Tools companies.”

— Lisa Kailai Han

Apple shares fall 3% premarket

Apple retreated 3.1% Thursday before the bell.

On Wednesday, the stock soared 15.3% after Trump announced the 90-day tariffs pause on several trading partners.

Shares were up around 5.6% as of Wednesday’s close, reversing their earlier declines with Wednesday’s rally.

— Hakyung Kim

EU announces 90-day pause on tariffs targeting U.S.

The European Union said Thursday it will halt retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products for 90 days, mirroring another 90-day pause announced by U.S. President Trump on Wednesday that sparked a massive market rally.

— Fred Imbert

Japan’s Nikkei jumps over 9% to lead gains in Asia after Trump pauses tariffs

Asia-Pacific markets rose Thursday, following Wall Street’s biggest burst of buying since 2008 after U.S. President Trump announced a 90-day pause on higher tariffs on all nations barring China.

Japanese markets led gains in the region. The benchmark Nikkei 225 closed 9.13% higher at 34,609, while the broader Topix index advanced 8.09% to 2,539.40.

South Korea‘s Kospi index surged 6.60% to close at 2,445.06, while the small-cap Kosdaq gained 5.97% to 681.79.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 4.54% to end the day at 7,709.60.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 rose 1.31% to end the day at 3,735.32, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 2.06% to close at 20,681.78.

India markets were closed for a holiday.

— Amala Balakrishner

European stocks surge at the open

European shares saw a huge rally at the open on Thursday, with the regional Stoxx 600 index jumping 7% by 8:23 a.m. in London.

Germany’s DAX was 7.5% higher, while banking stocks, up more than 10%, led sectoral gains.  

 — Chloe Taylor

Trump folded on tariffs ‘under market pressure’ from bonds, Capital Economics says

President Trump folded on his tariff policy Wednesday “under market pressure” and the bond market in particular, according to Capital Economics chief North America economist Paul Ashworth.

Trump resisted the stock market decline, but “once the bond market began to weaken too, it was only a matter of time before he folded on his eye-wateringly high tariffs,” the Toronto-based economist wrote to clients Wednesday.

“Our working assumption now will be that, cowed by the market response, Trump will repeatedly extend the ‘pause,’ meaning that this will end up looking a lot like the 10% universal tariff that he campaigned on,” the note said. Neither the U.S. nor China are likely to back down in coming days, and a full rollback to the level of tariffs before Inauguration Day is unlikely, although talks between the two nations will happen. Ashworth, who began at the London-based researcher in 2001, thinks the effective tariff rate on China is likely to settle at about 60%.

Partly as a result, and even allowing for the deflationary impact of lower oil prices, “we assume U.S. inflation will now peak at 4% or so,” Capital Economics wrote, or double the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. “U.S. GDP growth should be 1.0% to 1.5% annualized over the next 4 quarters.”

— Scott Schnipper

Market reaction was ‘absolutely not’ a factor in tariff pause, Lutnick says

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on “Fast Money” that the selling in financial markets over the past week was “absolutely not” a factor in the tariff pause on Wednesday. Earlier in the day, before President Trump announced the change, the S&P 500 had fallen to just above its bear market threshold, while the 10-year Treasury yield briefly traded above 4.5%.

CNBC’s Melissa Lee also asked Lutnick if U.S. companies could be confident in the direction of policy going forward. The Commerce chief responded that firms should carefully consider their exposure abroad and predicted upcoming announcements of companies building products in the U.S.

“I think it’s important for companies to understand that the countries they do their business in matter. If you do business in China, or you do business with a country that basically is just a proxy China, then you’re going to have to deal with the fact that President Trump does not think we are being treated correctly,” Lutnick said.

— Jesse Pound

Constellation Brands shares fall after company issues weak guidance

Shares of Constellation Brands fell more than 3% in extended trading Wednesday after the Modelo owner’s full-year forecast missed analysts’ expectations.

The company expects to post comparable earnings of $12.60 to $12.90 per share for fiscal 2026, while analysts surveyed by LSEG were anticipating $13.97 per share for the period.

Earnings and revenue for its fiscal 2025 fourth quarter came in better than expected, however.

— Sean Conlon, Amelia Lucas

Small caps have their best day since March 2020

Small-cap stocks got a much-needed bounce Wednesday after President Trump announced a 90-day pause on some U.S. tariffs. The Russell 2000 surged 8.7% to end the day at 1,913.16, marking its biggest one-day advance since March 24, 2020. That day, it rallied 9.4%.

— Fred Imbert

S&P 500 futures open little changed after historic rally

S&P 500 futures were relatively unchanged Wednesday evening after stocks saw monumental gains following President Donald Trump’s tariff reprieve.

Shortly after 6:00 p.m. E.T., futures tied to the S&P 500 were about 0.1% higher, while Nasdaq-100 futures fell about 0.2%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 57 points, or 0.1%.

— Sean Conlon