S&P 500 in 2025 H2: Here’s what Wall Street expects

The S&P 500 is trading at new all-time highs, with investors turning bullish as markets react to easing trade tensions and reduced geopolitical uncertainty. 

Notably, the index has staged an impressive recovery from the April 2025 dip triggered by sweeping trade tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.

At the close of Friday’s session, the index stood at 6,279, up 0.8% on the day and nearly 5% higher over the past month.

Amid the current rally, Wall Street analysts remain divided on where the index will finish the year, citing a mix of concerns over valuation, ongoing trade risks, and cautious optimism. 

Wall Street S&P 500 prediction 

Despite the recent momentum, Peter Berezin of BCA Research warned of a sharp correction, comparing the market’s euphoric rise to Wile E. Coyote hanging mid-air over a cliff. He pointed to deteriorating fundamentals, stretched valuations, weakening market breadth, rising debt levels, and strained consumers, which he believes outweigh the AI-driven rally. BCA has a bearish year-end S&P 500 target of 4,450. 

In contrast, Eric Teal, chief investment officer at Comerica Bank, projects the S&P 500 will finish the year near 6,400, reflecting what he calls “cautious optimism.” He expects the U.S. to avoid a recession, with rate cuts likely but not imminent. However, he noted that lingering uncertainty around trade and fiscal policy will likely cap further gains.

Kristy Akullian, head of iShares investment strategy for the Americas at BlackRock, didn’t offer a specific target but cautioned that forecasts tend to skew conservative, as analysts are wary of making bold predictions. She also noted that bearish takes often get more attention than bullish ones, which can distort the perceived consensus.

Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank, led by strategist Binky Chadha, raised its year-end target to 6,550, up from 6,150, citing a resilient economy, softer-than-expected tariffs, and strong corporate earnings. Chadha added, however, that the rally could see sharp pullbacks as trade policy tensions flare. The bank also raised its S&P 500 earnings-per-share estimate to $267 from $240.

Other major Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs, also revised their forecasts higher in May, aligning broadly with Deutsche Bank’s more upbeat outlook. While they didn’t publish specific targets, they cited similar drivers such as cooling trade risks, solid earnings, and easing inflation pressures.

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