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Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields should stay around current levels in the fourth quarter, Erste Group Research analysts said in a note.
“The expectations of a soft landing for the U.S. economy in the coming months will not change much and is already largely priced in,” they said.
The biggest risk that could cause long-dated U.S. Treasury yields to rise would be a clean sweep victory for the Republicans in the U.S. election, given the potential inflationary impact of Donald Trump’s policy proposals, they said.
Erste Group Research forecasts the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 3.80% in the fourth quarter, versus around 4% currently; and at 3.70% in the first half of 2025, similar to levels in late September and early October.