Stock-Market Outlook
Last week
SHARE prices fell last week, with the main index falling to the 6,600-point level as trading became lethargic with investors looking to the central banks’ meetings this week.
The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index fell 112.63 points to close at 6,616.51 points.
The main index was down almost all week long, save for Tuesday when it gained 44.25 points.
“The local market is still moving sideways with a bearish bias as investors maintain a cautious stance, dealing with lingering headwinds while waiting for positive leads,” Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco, senior research analyst at Philstocks Financials Inc., said.
Average daily trading only reached P4.83 billion, with foreign investors, who cornered 43 percent of the trades, were net sellers at P260.92 million.
Other sub-indices ended mixed. The broader All Shares index fell 37.95 points to close at 3,752.73 points, the Financials index gained 9.80 to 2,261.34, the Industrial index lost 73.67 to 9,095.55, the Holding Firms index plunged 195.80 to 5,609.57, the Property index declined 78.45 to 2,434.94, the Services index was up 2.03 to 2,096.75 and the Mining and Oil index climbed 98.36 to 7,603.29.
For the week, losers edged gainers 128 to 100 and 35 shares were unchanged.
Top gainers were Uniholdings Inc., Lorenzo Shipping Corp., Keppel Philippines Holdings Inc. B shares, Easycall Communications Philippines Inc., Atok-Big Wedge Co. Inc., DITO CME Holdings Corp. and Berjaya Philippines Inc.
Top losers, meanwhile, were PH Resorts Group Holdings Inc., AbaCore Capital Holdings Inc., TKC Metals Corp., Vitarich Corp., East Coast Vulcan Mining Corp., Apollo Global Capital Inc. and Macay Holdings Inc.
This week
SHARE prices may rise this week as investors anticipate a rate cut during the US Federal Reserve’s meeting on the 18th and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas on the next day.
Broker 2TradeAsia said said the policy meeting will be held just after US inflation hit 2.7 percent in November, slightly higher than previous months, and 3.3 percent without the volatile food and energy baskets.
“The minimal uptick should almost make a rate cut near certainty, bringing the target rate to the 4.25 to 4.5 percent range by the end of 2024. This same range has been being priced in since early fourth quarter,” the broker said.
“However, the next Fed meeting in January 29th is likely going to be a bigger market mover, in the sense that consensus has been for a while mixed with the Fed’s direction in early 2025 pointing to a pause in January given data as of this writing,” it said.
Tantiangco said, meanwhile, from a valuation standpoint, the local market remains at attractive levels and is good for bargain hunting.
“However, investors are expected to continue waiting for positive catalysts before getting into the market strongly. A rate cut from the two (US Fed and BSP) as well as hints of further easing are expected to give a boost to sentiment which in turn could help the market achieve a positive close,” he said.
“[This] week, investors are also expected to monitor the peso’s performance against the US dollar. A further depreciation of the local currency may weigh on the bourse,” Tantiangco added.
Chartwise, the market’s immediate support is seen at 6,600. Immediate resistance is seen at the 10-day exponential moving average, while major resistance is seen at 6,800, he said.
Stock picks
BROKER Regina Capital Development Corp. gave a “buy” on pullbacks on the stock of Century Pacific Food Inc. (PSE: CNPF) as its share price continues its rally, trading above all major moving averages and surging by almost 5 percent.
“All indicators point to strong bullish momentum. The MACD [Moving average convergence/divergence] confirmed with a bullish crossover and expanding green histograms, while the RSI [ Relative Strength Index] climbed to 72.55, entering overbought territory—a sign of intensified buying pressure,” it said.
CNPF shares were last traded at P45 apiece.
Meanwhile, the broker advised to trade the range on the stock of Areit Inc. as it attempts to retest to the P40 level.
“The stock price gained 1.18 percent intraday, closing at 38.45, but remains below its 9-day and 50-day moving averages, reflecting continued bearish pressure,” it said.
Areit shares closed at P38.40 apiece.