Stock market outlook: How Nifty 50 likely to perform in April 2025? Here’s what history suggests

Indian stock market: Benchmark indices closed FY25 on a positive note, rebounding strongly in March after experiencing a record five-month losing streak from October to February. Meanwhile, mid and small-cap stocks delivered impressive gains, outperforming the broader market indices.

In March 2025, the BSE Sensex recorded a significant rise, climbing by up to 5.8%, while the NSE Nifty 50 surged over 6.3%. Data also indicates that the Nifty Smallcap 100 demonstrated remarkable growth, gaining 9.5%.

The market rebound in March was fueled by growing domestic optimism and the return of foreign investments, driven by bargain hunting at lower valuations, which are now closer to historical averages. Early signs of economic recovery are emerging, supported by increasing chances of RBI rate cuts as inflation has recently fallen below the 4% target.

Additionally, recent RBI policy measures—such as easing lending restrictions and expanding priority sector norms—signal a focus on growth. As a result, markets anticipate a gradual improvement in the earnings outlook for fiscal 2026.

“The Indian equity markets showed a promising turnaround in March, with the benchmark index increasing by more than 6%. This shift marks an encouraging departure from the bearish trends observed in recent quarters. The Nifty’s ability to reclaim 23500 and maintain stability over the past week highlights a constructive development and potential for further growth ahead,” said Sameet Chavan, Head Research, Technical and Derivative – Angel One.

Here’s a look back at the performance of Indian market in April in last five years

An analysis of historical data reveals that when March experiences a substantial increase, April seldom follows with a major surge. Instead, its performance tends to be either negative or limited to small gains.

Looking at last five years data, Nifty 50 has mostly remained bullish in the month of April. According to Alpha Trends report by Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates, Nifty 50 posted over 15 per cent gains in 2020 snapping three months of losing streak.

However, the index remained flat in April 2021 by falling over 0.41 per cent, as compared to gaining over a per cent in March 2021. In 2022, the Nifty 50 index closed the month with a 2.07 per cent decline, making it the second consecutive year of losses in the April series.

Meanwhile, the index has been posting impressive growth in April since last two years by soaring 4.06 per cent in 2023 and 1.24 per cent in 2024, according to the report.

How does Indian market likely to perform in April 2025?

According to market experts, near-term volatility from global factors is expected, but India’s strong domestic market supports a positive long-term outlook.

“Global outlook continued to deteriorate on trade war worries and tectonic geopolitical shifts, domestic picture keeps the sentiment from worsening further. Markets are likely to experience elevated uncertainty and continued volatility in fiscal 2026 owing to new global macro regime where US trade war will reshape the global supply chains and capital flows. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, set to be announced next week, along with upcoming RBI meeting will be the immediate triggers to watch for the markets,” said Satish Chandra Aluri, Lemonn Markets Desk.

Bank Nifty index has outperformed the frontline index and was one among the major contributor to the overall rally. “From a pattern perspective, the index has been trading in a downward-sloping channel for the past six months. We expect it to retest the upper end of the channel, provided it holds the 50,500 zone. Meanwhile, the upper trendline of the channel coincides with the 52,800–53,000 zone,” said Alpha Trends report.

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