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Eight leading member nations of OPEC+, a group of major oil producers, agreed on Sunday to raise production by 137,000 barrels per day (b/d) in December but signaled a pause in rate changes through the first quarter of 2026.
Futures on Brent crude oil (BZ=F), the global benchmark, lost roughly 0.4% Monday morning. Futures on US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude (CL=F) fell 0.6%.
The December unwind, identical to the 137,000 b/d increase through November announced in early October, brings the total amount of cuts unwound since April to 2.91 million b/d, according to energy consultancy Rystad Energy.
The choice to pause production increases through the first three months of 2026 reflects a shift in views by the bloc. The group of Middle Eastern oil-producing nations, led by Saudi Arabia, has spent every month since April unwinding previous cuts and raising its daily production of crude oil, even in the face of what analysts agree is an impending oil glut throughout next year as the countries look to reclaim market share.
“In their continuous efforts to support market stability, [the member nations] reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to continue pausing or reverse the additional voluntary production adjustments,” the cartel said in a statement announcing the December unwind.
OPEC+ attributed the pause to “seasonality.” Traditionally, demand has dropped in the first quarter of each year as refineries reduce production runs.
Recently announced US sanctions by the US Treasury on Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia’s largest oil-producing companies, have also added an increased level of uncertainty to the market, as a slowdown in Russian barrels could swing the balance of the incoming glut.
“Yes, OPEC+ is blinking, but it’s a calculated move,” said Rystad head of geopolitical analysis Jorge León. “By pausing, OPEC+ is protecting prices, projecting unity, and buying time to see how sanctions play out on Russian barrels. The group knows that overproducing now could backfire later.”