Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures pause as Wall Street braces for jobs report

US stock futures trod water on Wednesday as investors waited for the long-awaited January jobs report to help set expectations for interest-rate cuts.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) held just above the flatline, coming off a third straight record close. Contracts on the S&P 500 (ES=F) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) were also little changed on the heels of a losing day.

Investors are focused on the “Super Bowl of jobs reports” — the delayed January nonfarm-payrolls update. After a bruising recent run of labor market data, a subdued reading is expected.

While estimates vary wildly, economists surveyed by Bloomberg project a gain of about 68,000 jobs in the Bureau of Labor Statistics release scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.4%. At the same time, sweeping revisions to 2025 numbers that could show far fewer new positions were added to the US economy than previously thought.

White House officials have downplayed the importance of the report to gauging economic health. “We have to revise our expectations down significantly for what a monthly job number should look like,” trade counselor Peter Navarro told Fox News.

Any surprise will feed into bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, already bolstered by soft December retail data that revealed fresh signs of weakness in the economy. Markets are now pricing in around 77% odds of lower rates by June, as odds on the Fed standing pat in coming months tick lower.

Earnings season could provide further insight into the American consumer as well as Corporate America, with McDonald’s (MCD) and Kraft Heinz (KHC) results due before the bell. After the market close, Cisco’s (CSCO) quarterly report comes as the tech stalwart takes on Nvidia (NVDA) for Big Tech spending with a new AI networking chip.

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