Stocks were choppy on Friday after a headlong sell-off as investors assessed slowing economic growth and sticky inflation, setting expectations for interest rate cuts amid a still-hot Iran conflict.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) held on to gains, rising 0.1%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) turned 0.3% lower, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell 0.6%.
Renewed inflation worries, combined with gains in oil prices, have shifted expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Traders have scaled back bets that the central bank will cut interest rates this year, but are now assessing fresh data to test those expectations.
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index data, released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday, showed that headline prices rose by 0.3% month over month in January, before the war began. “Core” PCE, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices, was unchanged, rising 0.4% on the month.
Data out Friday also showed that US economic growth slowed more than initially thought in the final three months of 2025. The real gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter was revised to 0.7% growth from a previous reading of 1.4%, sharply below expectations, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Friday.
Meanwhile, investors are wondering how long and how wide the Iran war will rage in the Middle East, as the conflict marks its second week. Israel launched fresh attacks on Tehran on Friday, while Tehran is seen as behind the missile strikes on Dubai and Turkey.
The escalating conflict has driven a sharp rise in oil prices that has destabilized markets, sending the three major US stock benchmarks to their lowest closing levels of 2026 and their lowest points since November on Thursday.
Crude prices pulled back on Friday, with West Texas Intermediate futures (CL=F) down 2% to below $94 a barrel. Meanwhile, Brent crude futures (BZ=F) retreated to just under $100 after cresting that level for the second time since the war began early Friday morning.
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Boeing shares rally on news that Max jet delays won’t be as bad as expected
Shares in Boeing (BA) gained more than 2.5% on Friday after Bloomberg reported that the company doesn’t expect delays due to defects with its Max jets to be as bad as expected.
Boeing is repairing small wiring defects in 25 of its Max jets, Bloomberg reported. Boeing shares had dropped roughly 3% on March 10 when the company initially reported the flaw, though at the time the aircraft maker hadn’t said how many jets were affected.
Boeing has delivered three 737 Max jets so far in March, against 43 total deliveries in February, according to Bloomberg. While the company does expect some delays on Max deliveries, their new estimates are lower than what they originally disclosed, Bloomberg reported.
Stocks undercut Thursday’s lows as risk-off sentiment deepens
In striking contrast to last week’s intraday tape in the majors (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC), we’re seeing any opening strenth reversed and sold as the day progresses.
As we enter the daily lunch doldrums, all three are now on track for the lowest close since last November.
Large-cap leadership remains defensive, with utilities (XLU), staples (XLP), and real estate (XLRE) topping the list of green sectors. Tech (XLK) and materials (XLB) are each down over 0.5%.
As to risk sentiment, while small-caps (^RUT, ^SP600) and micro-caps (IWC) were leading after the open, they’re both now laggards.
Notably, bitcoin (BTC-USD) is still positive, but the daily candle is pointing to the second rejection of the $74,000 in 10 days.
Consumer sentiment hits lowest reading of the year in early March amid Middle East war
The conflict in Iran and resulting higher gas prices weighed on Americans’ views of the overall economy, Yahoo Finance’s Brooke DiPalma reports.
January saw 6.94 million job openings, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, outperforming estimates of 6.75 million jobs even as quits and firings remain low.
3.13 million people quit their jobs, and 1.63 million people were fired or laid off in January, a slowdown from December’s 3.22 million quits and 1.66 million layoffs and firings, according to BLS data.
Economists had expected 3.11 million quits and a combined 1.76 million layoffs and firings.
The figures come after a whipsawing two months for headline jobs reports.
While the BLS’s nonfarm payrolls data showed 150,000 jobs added in January, far outperforming expectations, February numbers showed a loss of 92,000 jobs, where economists were expecting 55,000 jobs added.
Small-caps leading stocks early, but defensive sectors dominate large-cap leaders
I’m seeing a lot of green this morning in the major indexes (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC), with small-caps (^RUT, ^SP600) leading.
Even bitcoin (BTC-USD) and micro-caps (IWC) are popping, while large-cap energy (XLE) — the market’s best-performing sector this year by a country mile — takes a back seat.
But large-cap leadership still leans defensive, with utilities (XLU), healthcare (XLV), and real estate (XLRE) each up more than 1%. Tech is up about 0.8%, led by chip stocks (SOXX), while software (IGV) is roughly flat.
And with the S&P 500 (^GSPC) now trading below 6,800 — a former floor that has turned into resistance — this still looks more like a relief bounce than an all-clear. That changes only if the index can reclaim 6,800 and hold it.
US stocks gain at the open
The US stock market turned positive after ending Thursday in the red while investors evaluated the war in Iran and data on US inflation and cooling GDP growth.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) led the way up, rising roughly 0.7%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) both gained roughly 0.5%.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures (CL=F) retreated down 2% to below $94 a barrel, while those on Brent crude (BZ=F) pulled back to just under $100 after cresting that level for the second time since the war began early Friday morning.
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index data released Friday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that headline prices rose by 0.3% in January over the previous month. So-called core PCE, which excludes the more volatile food and energy categories, rose 0.4% on the month.
US economic growth slowed more than initially thought in the fourth quarter of last year, after the BEA revised its real gross domestic product (GDP) reading for the fourth quarter down to 0.7% growth from a previous reading of 1.4%.
Markets are reeling from high oil prices. But that doesn’t mean more drilling.
Global markets may be reeling from another surge in oil prices, but the industry that produces the world’s crude is unlikely to respond with a sudden drilling boom.
Even as benchmark prices climb toward levels that historically would have triggered aggressive investment, energy analysts say companies such as Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and ConocoPhillips (COP) are instead looking past the current spike and focusing on where prices are expected to settle over the coming decade — a horizon that still points toward more moderate levels.
In a recent note to clients, analysts at Jefferies noted that “[oil companies] are unlikely to make long‑duration production or capital allocation decisions based on short‑term price volatility, particularly given ongoing balance sheet discipline and a preference to hedge rather than accelerate activity.”
Major oil and gas investments are typically sanctioned based on conservative long-term price assumptions rather than spot market volatility. The latest rally — driven by fears of supply disruption linked to tensions around Iran and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — reflects a geopolitical risk premium, rather than a fundamental shift in long-term oil market balances.
That distinction is critical for energy companies weighing long-term commitments worth billions of dollars on new production, especially when the timelines for bringing new production online can take years — and in some frontier basins, decades.
Oil prices hover near $100 per barrel as Strait of Hormuz remains blocked
Oil prices briefly surged above $100 per barrel for the second time since the conflict began early Friday morning before pulling back to just slightly under the key level.
Futures on Brent crude (BZ=F), the international pricing benchmark, lost 0.9% through Friday morning to trade at roughly $99.50 after cresting $101. Those on US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude (CL=F) fell by 1.5% to change hands around $94.20 after topping $97 earlier in the day.
While prices on Brent and WTI are still below their Sunday evening highs of $119 by 16% and 20%, respectively, the two energy products remain roughly 50% above where they were one month ago.
In the Middle East, the war has only continued to escalate as the critical Strait of Hormuz remains essentially closed to through-traffic, cutting off roughly 16 million barrels per day of crude flows from the global market.
In comments Friday morning, President Trump said Friday that the US planned to strike Iran “very hard” over the next week. The Iranian regime, now under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, has increasingly targeted ports and other critical energy infrastructure throughout the Gulf region, alongside attacks against vessels in the region.
Fourth quarter GDP growth revised lower to 0.7%, slowing significantly from Q3
US economic growth slowed more than initially thought in the fourth quarter of last year.
The real gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter was revised to 0.7% growth from a previous reading of 1.4%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Friday. That previous reading of 1.4% also marked a deceleration from the 4.4% growth in the third quarter of 2025.
Increases in consumer spending and investment supported growth in the final three months of the year, while decreases in government spending and exports weighed on growth. However, exports accelerated again in January (not figured into fourth quarter GDP) as the US’s trade deficit decreased by 25% that month.
Fed’s preferred measure of inflation rises 0.4% in January, in line with estimates
The growth was in line with economists’ expectations of 0.3%, according to Bloomberg’s consensus estimates, and below December’s 0.4% month-on-month gain.
“Core” PCE, which excludes the more volatile food and energy categories, rose 0.4% on the month, in line with the previous month’s 0.4% growth. Economists had also predicted that the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure would rise by 0.4%.
On an annual basis, the headline and core PCE price indexes rose 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively, in December from the previous year. Economists had expected annual growth of 2.9% and 3.1% for the two measures.
Meanwhile, personal income rose 0.4% in December on a monthly basis, above the previous month’s growth of 0.3% and below economists’ expectations of 0.5%
Personal spending increased 0.4% from last month, coming in above expectations of 0.3% but in line with the previous month’s growth of 0.4%.
Gold heads for weekly drop
Gold (GC=F) headed for its second weekly decline as crude oil traded near $100 per barrel amid the war in the Middle East. Higher oil prices have raised inflationary expectations, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts.
The precious metal traded just under $5,100 an ounce, while the dollar strengthened, with the dollar index (DX-Y.NYB) hitting the key psychological 100 level.
Premarket trending tickers: Dick’s Sporting Goods, Strategy, Coinbase, and SentinelOne
sDick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) stock fell 6% during premarket hours on Friday following the release of its upbeat fourth quarter earnings on Thursday. However, the retailer’s guidance for the current fiscal year was mixed, with the company’s adjusted per-share earnings of $13.50 to 14.50 falling short of analysts’ estimates of $14.82.
Strategy (MSTR) and Coinbase (COIN) stocks rose around 3% before the bell on Friday, following bitcoin’s (BTC-USD) 2% rise today.
SentinelOne (S) stock fell 5% during premarket hours on Friday after the cybersecurity firm reported upbeat fourth quarter earnings for revenue, which met analysts’ targets, but the company’s April quarter guidance was only in line with estimates.
Ulta stock falls after beauty retailer issues cautious guidance
Ulta (ULTA) stock declined 8% in premarket trading on Friday as investors were disappointed by the beauty retailer’s tepid 2026 guidance and fourth quarter earnings miss.
For the full year, Ulta forecast earnings per share of $28.05 to $28.55, which fell below Wall Street’s expectations for earnings of $28.57, according to consensus estimates from S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Investors were focused on Ulta’s guidance going into the earnings report after a year of investment in 2025. Ulta’s same-store sales outlook of 2.5% to 3.5% had a midpoint below the expected 3.5% comparable sales guidance, raising questions about pressure on operating margins.
In the fourth quarter, diluted earnings per share of $8.01 also missed Wall Street’s $8.03 estimate. Revenue of $3.89 billion beat estimates of $3.82 billion. Same-store sales were up 5.8% year over year.
ByteDance signs $2.5b deal for Nvidia chips outside of China
